Europe in a Post-Transatlantic Security Order (S&D Series 1)
Security & Defence Unit
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Series I — Compiled Edition
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September 2026
Europe in a Post-Transatlantic Security Order
Eleven analysts trace how Europe’s security and defence policy is shifting as Washington’s commitments come with more conditions attached, covering everything from hybrid threats and defence procurement to space, military AI and the future of the nuclear umbrella.
Editor’s Note
What does Europe look like in a post-transatlantic security order? As Europe’s political leadership grapples with that question, policy changes in Washington are already shaping the possibilities for Europe’s future security order. Since starting his second term, President Trump has doubled down on the conditionality of US military support, pushing European allies to shoulder their own defence burden.
It’s no secret that the transatlantic relationship is entering a period of uncertainty unlike anything seen in recent decades. It is with this backdrop that ‘strategic autonomy’ has become a rallying point for leaders in Brussels and across Europe. In search of lessening the continent’s dependence on American military might, the high-level decisions made today as a result will unmistakably shape the security order that Gen Z and subsequent generations will inherit. With this in mind, we at Euro Prospects have the pleasure of presenting our Security & Defence Unit’s inaugural series: “Europe in a Post-Transatlantic Security Order.” In it, we delve into the multifaceted nature of how Europe is recalibrating its policies.
So, how should leaders in Europe confront this changing security environment? Across eleven articles, our analysts explore the different dimensions of European security that are ripe for recalibration, from confronting Russia’s hybrid threat and rethinking weapons procurement to crafting a new role for Europe within the NATO alliance. We also pulled back the curtain on some of the newer challenges extending beyond Europe’s immediate security environment, exploring the militarisation of space, AI’s implementation into warfare, Indo-Pacific diplomacy, and efforts to strengthen homegrown innovation across Europe’s defence industry.
In a nutshell, our perspectives show just how complicated Europe’s pursuit of strategic autonomy will be during Trump’s second term and beyond. While Europe’s security capabilities remain deeply rooted in American military power in many areas, European leaders are increasingly looking to develop new capabilities, technologies, and opportunities to take greater responsibility for the continent’s security. That tension sits at the heart of our inaugural series: how can Europe become more strategically autonomous while maintaining the transatlantic relationship that has defined its security and defence architecture for decades? That is the question we hope to explore with you throughout this series.
Happy reading,
Director
Jake Southerland
Director, Security & Defence Unit
Euro Prospects
Co-produced with
Francesco Bernabeu Fornara
Founder & Editor-in-Chief
Euro Prospects
Eleven Articles
The Series
01
Next Generation Defence
Trial by Fire? Why NATO 3.0 Is a Speed Test for European Defence Innovation
Europe is spending more and taking on greater defence responsibility within NATO. The harder test is whether its defence ecosystem can deliver capabilities at the speed this new role demands.
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02
Russia
How Russia’s NATO Grievance Became a Grievance Against Europe
For twenty years, Russia cast NATO as an existential threat to justify its aggression. Now, as Washington pulls back, that same grievance is being pointed at Europe itself.
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03
Cyber Defence
Europe’s Improvised Autonomy on Ransomware, Without Washington
In July 2026, the EU and Britain sanctioned Russian hackers without waiting for Washington to act first, proving that the Union can already impose costs on its adversaries.
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04
Operational Readiness
The Procurement Mentality Undermining European Defence
Europe’s defence spending surge has a clear winner: American suppliers. National procurement decisions are undermining strategic autonomy before Brussels has finished debating it.
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05
Space Security
Europe’s Search for Strategic Autonomy in Space
Waves of new-generation satellites and launchers continue to be built by Europe, but institutional fragmentation still stands between it and genuine strategic autonomy.
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06
AI & Defence Governance
The EU’s Military AI Gap: Why AGILE Will Not Be Enough
With just a 90-minute notice, the US cut off its allies from the use of its most powerful AI system. Will this be a wake up call for Brussels?
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07
Hybrid Threats
Resilience Building Against Hybrid Threats: A Baltic Self-Help Guide
With NATO losing reliability, should we be concerned about Baltic hybrid resilience, or should we learn from it? Here is what we know so far.
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08
UK & Nuclear Policy
Can UK-French Nuclear Cooperation Substitute for US Extended Deterrence?
Washington’s 2026 National Defence Strategy rests conspicuously silent on the future of its nuclear umbrella over Europe. Growing Anglo-French cooperation is being framed as the continent’s most plausible fallback.
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09
Europe in the Indo-Pacific
Beyond Cheap Talk? The EU’s Fragmented Turn to Indo-Pacific Security
In 2025 the EU committed to more in Indo-Pacific security than ever before. It is not clear it has the means to follow through.
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10
NATO
Inside NATO 3.0: Where Europe Leads, and Where It Still Can’t
NATO’s own leadership calls it a new era of partnership. Europe is taking on more responsibility, however, it still depends on America for nearly everything that leadership runs on.
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11
Transatlantic Relations
Burden-Sharing or Burden-Shaping? Europe Rewrites the Rules of Rearmament
A United States committed to burden-sharing cannot simultaneously insist on burden-shaping.
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Compiled Print Edition
Download the Full Series
All eleven articles, the editor’s note in full, and the complete Security & Defence Unit roster in a single publication, formatted for reading and citation.
Security & Defence Unit
The Team
Jake SoutherlandDirector, Security & Defence Unit
Francesco Bernabeu FornaraFounder & Editor-in-Chief, Euro Prospects
Maryna MinchevaNext Generation Defence Analyst
Kit NewmanRussia Analyst
Margherita RossiCyber Defence Analyst
Milán MajorOperational Readiness Analyst
Pierre SabotSpace Security Analyst
Luca RastelliAI & Defence Governance Analyst
Arturo SimoneHybrid Threats Analyst
Arthur LangleyUK & Nuclear Policy Analyst
Mariona Fortuny JanéEurope in the Indo-Pacific Analyst
Matteo NilssonNATO Analyst
María Gil MartínezTransatlantic Relations Analyst
About Euro Prospects
Euro Prospects is an independent platform for in-depth analysis of European political affairs, founded in June 2022. We bring together students and young professionals from across the continent to produce sober, high-quality analysis on the issues shaping Europe today.
Visit Euro ProspectsAbout the S&D Unit
The Security & Defence Unit (S&D) is Euro Prospects’ dedicated section for analysing the military, strategic, and institutional developments reshaping Europe’s security landscape.
S&D Landing PageCite This Series
Security & Defence Unit, Euro Prospects. Europe in a Post-Transatlantic Security Order: S&D Series I. Euro Prospects, September 2026. Available at: europrospects.eu
