Donald Trump returned to the White House in 2024 as the second president in American history to serve two non-consecutive terms. He achieved this despite having sought to overturn the 2020 presidential election and block the transfer of power to the incoming Biden administration in 2021. He also faced two impeachments but was acquitted both times, and was later convicted of 34 felony counts in the state of New York. Two attempts were made on Trump’s life during the 2024 campaign. Despite all of this, Trump pulled off one of the most stunning comebacks in American political history with his victory in 2024, even rivalling that of Richard Nixon in 1968.

In 2024, the Republicans kept their majority in the House of Representatives and won control of the Senate, completing a “government trifecta” of both houses of Congress plus the presidency. They won the national popular vote for the first time since the reelection of George W. Bush in 2004.

Soon after the victory, Trump and his cadre behaved as if victory in one election meant victory forever, or as if Trump’s performance among young minority men had shattered the Democratic Party’s coalition. Trump claimed he had won one of the biggest landslide victories in American history, and though this was not true, the GOP (Grand Old Party, shorthand for the Republican Party) had handed the Democrats a defeat that would force the party to find its post-Biden identity.

That was two years ago, and as they say in American politics, the pendulum always swings back… and swung back it has. The midterms are near, and Trump and his party have taken actions consistent with a party worried about its chances.

A good night for the Democrats could signal a step toward mending the US-Europe relationship, which has been damaged by the halting of aid to Ukraine, threats against Denmark, the war against Iran, and other policies of the Trump administration. The outcomes of some races will serve as indicators of emergent trends in both the paradigm of Republicans versus Democrats, and moderates versus radicals that will set the stage for the next Congress and the 2028 presidential election. How national ideological trends manifest electorally will determine the trajectory of the transatlantic relationship for the next two years, most importantly on the issues of US support within NATO and on Ukraine, as Congress has the power to levy sanctions, provide aid, and check the powers of the president.

How American Elections Work

The United States maintains the oldest continually operative written constitution in the world, which entered force in 1789. Regular elections are held at the federal level every two years on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. The current Congress is the 119th, inaugurated on 3 January 2025, set to expire on 3 January 2027 when the 120th takes office. The biennial election that does not coincide with the quadrennial presidential election is in the middle of the president’s term, hence “midterm elections.”

Members of the House of Representatives (“the House”) serve two-year terms. Every one of the 435 seats in the House is contested in every biennial cycle. House districts are redrawn by population following the census each decade, though mid-decade redistricting is becoming a common political weapon for both parties. The House is the lower chamber and is traditionally considered the more chaotic chamber due to its constant elections and larger size.

Every state, regardless of population, elects two senators to the Senate for six-year terms. Tiny Delaware and sparse Wyoming each elect two senators, the same as mighty Texas and California. There are 50 states, so there are 100 Senate seats. About one-third of the Senate (a senate “class”) is contested in each biennial election. This coming November there are 35 Senate seats being contested.

Unlike in most European countries, candidates in the United States are elected in “primary elections” to decide the party’s nominee for the general election against the other party, rather than being chosen by party leaders. Candidates first run against opponents of their own party before winning their party’s nomination, and then proceed to the general election against the candidate which the other party has nominated.

The Political Situation

Donald Trump’s popularity among American voters has plummeted. He is currently at his lowest ever, with 59-60% of Americans actively disapproving of his presidency, and 34-37% approving as of 26 October.

Trump is polling poorly on every issue, most notably those he campaigned on in 2024: the economy and immigration. Some 72% of Americans actively disapprove of Trump’s handling of inflation, and 65% disapprove on the economy generally. He is even underwater on immigration by over 10 points, one of his staple issues. The economy was what drew many voters back to Trump in 2024, with 93% of Trump voters considering it a very important issue in that election.

The management of the war against Iran has exacerbated incredibly high gasoline prices, which is the most direct indicator to voters of economic strife. Trump’s implementation of tariffs has also brought the average price of groceries up by 31%. Confusion regarding the war, an economy hindered by tariffs, the deal with Russia to import Russian diesel in what critics argue is a violation of the 2022 Ending Importation of Russian Oil Act, and concerns over corruption contribute to a dour national mood ahead of the elections.

State by State

The results in major races in Texas, Alaska, Maine, and Michigan highlight major ideological and political trends. These results can show the continued viability of alignment with Trump, the extent of Trump’s influence on American voters even when he is not on the ballot, the status of the factional disputes in the Democratic Party’s post-Biden identity crisis, and the tolerance of American voters for extremism. These trends hint at how the next Congress will go on issues like supporting Ukraine, membership and leadership within NATO, the war against Iran, and what kind of ally the US will be to Europe for the next two years.

Texas, Senate

Trump casts a massive shadow over the midterms, and nowhere is this more apparent than the Senate race in Texas. This race is the second most expensive non-presidential race in American history, expected to be the first by election day.

Trump intervened in this race by undercutting the primary campaign of incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn, endorsing strong ally Ken Paxton instead, the controversial attorney general of Texas who had been charged with fraud in 2015 and settled the case through a pretrial agreement in 2024. Paxton was reported to the FBI by his own staff in 2020 and impeached in 2023 over bribery and obstruction of justice, but was acquitted. Had Cornyn’s campaign survived to the general election, he might have cruised to a safe victory. Instead, Republicans face a tossup against Democrat James Talarico.

Talarico is a Presbyterian seminarian and progressive member of the Texas state House of Representatives. Unlike Paxton, he has faced few scandals and has attempted to distance himself from his more extreme views of the COVID era, calling his previous positions on gender and religion “cringey”.

A victory for Talarico would not be indicative of a major electoral shift which finally “turns Texas blue” but would display the limits of Trump’s ability to turn out voters. A victory for Paxton would be a good omen for Republicans in a race Cornyn could have won anyway.

The symbolism of this race is more important than the electoral implications. If Paxton loses and the Republicans lose the Senate, Republicans may blame Paxton and Trump for losing a winnable race. That could mark the beginning of a break in congressional Republicans’ support for the President, which would have serious consequences for Trump’s agenda, especially regarding support for Ukraine, an issue on which some Republicans have already broken with him and tried to revive in a way that Trump would not veto.

Alaska, Senate

It is more believable that Texas is in play than Alaska, which has only voted for a Democratic presidential candidate once in its entire history: Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Alaska voted for Trump by 12-13 points in 2024 and has historically not been considered contested.

Incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan is facing Mary Peltola, former at-large House member for Alaska and chair of the Blue Dogs, the tiny conservative wing of the Democratic congressional caucus. Polls as of 20 October show Peltola up by 2-6%, maintaining a slight, steady lead since July.

Sullivan has marched in ideological lockstep with the President. Trump came to boost Sullivan by holding rallies across Alaska, suggesting that Republicans consider the race competitive.

The New York Times reported on 28 October that the Peltola campaign had tapped another man named Dan Sullivan to run as an independent with the backing of the national Democratic Party to confuse voters and peel votes from the sitting senator. This appears to support accusations made by Trump since the independent Sullivan launched his campaign. Peltola’s campaign has denied the allegations, and a probe has been launched by the House GOP.

If once-red Alaska swings for the Democrats even amidst the scandal, it could indicate a bad night for Republicans in races nationwide, and a major victory for the moderate faction within the Democratic Party.

Michigan, Senate

Michigan candidate for Senate Abdul El-Sayed’s positions are on the farther left edge of the Democratic coalition, aligned with the rising cohort of Democratic politicians associated with the Democratic Socialists of America. The DSA’s platform advocates for US withdrawal from NATO, blames NATO for the war in Ukraine, opposes aid to Ukraine and Israel, and seeks to negotiate a settlement with Russia. While El-Sayed himself is not a member of the organization, he is closely associated with its policies and supporters. He has, however, expressed conditional support for Ukraine aid, but his foreign policy positions are mostly focused on ending all aid to Israel. His views on Europe and Russia remain unclear, but DSA proximity indicates that there is a chance he might be unfriendly to NATO.

El-Sayed has spent much of his campaign defending himself against various allegations, including alleged ties to the Muslim Brotherhood and connection to an ad run on his behalf claiming that Israel is responsible for high grocery prices and controls his opponent. He has denied both connections.

The mainstream moderate wing of the Democratic Party has reluctantly backed El-Sayed, who made his disdain for the moderates aggressively clear during the primaries. The broader Democratic Party has struggled to reconcile many of his positions that they do not share, particularly regarding Israel and his conflicting statements on military aid.

El-Sayed’s opponent, former representative Mike Rogers, was a more standard Trump Republican until recently, as he has begun to distance himself from Trump as the race has drawn to a tight close. Rogers has reversed his support for the Iran war and for tariffs against Canada, directly saying “Canada is not our enemy, we must end the tariff war.”

If El-Sayed wins, the Democratic Party’s leftist faction would gain a prominent Senate voice. Polls show he has a thin lead, but the appearance of Democrat heavyweights like Barack Obama and Kamala Harris to boost his campaign may mean the Democratic Party is worried about his chances. Should he win in November, it is likely that candidates of both factions of the Democratic Party could squeak over the edge of victory in close races. The DSA-aligned faction would thus be here to stay. Should El-Sayed lose, but the Democrats still take the Senate, it would indicate that the American electorate is rejecting the more radical wings of both parties, even if Rogers’ opposition to the president may be conditional.

Maine, Senate

Susan Collins has represented Maine in the Senate since 1997 and has been described as a moderate centrist who regularly votes against Trump. She has won reelection as the only Republican to represent any New England state in the Senate. Former senator, former Democrat, and fellow noted moderate Joe Manchin of West Virginia has joined Collins’ campaign despite his former party and has called on Collins to leave hers.

Collins was initially slated to face progressive populist Graham Platner, who withdrew following allegations of rape and domestic abuse, on top of other controversies including a tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol. The Democratic candidate, Troy Jackson, has sought to make the race a referendum on the Republican Party rather than individual personalities.

Defeat for Collins would indicate that the backlash against Trump is strong enough to overwhelm even centrist Republicans who have opposed him and does not bode well for the party’s chances. Her defeat would be a serious indicator for the direction of the rest of the country, and her victory, especially if the Democrats still take the Senate, would be a victory for the moderates of both parties.

Election Night

What can we expect to wake up to on Wednesday 4 November? A Democratic majority in both chambers seems increasingly likely but is far from certain. It is likely however that Democrats will win a majority in the House, but the Senate remains a tossup.

Blue Wave

Both chambers going for the Democrats would not resolve the party’s identity crisis that followed their 2024 defeat. The only indication of a nascent unified identity for the Democrats would be if moderates overperform and the leftists flounder, or vice versa, all while still winning both chambers: an unlikely combination.

Some of the DSA-aligned candidates for the House have not committed to backing Democrats’ presumptive Speaker of the House, Hakeem Jeffries, who does not support their agenda. The thinness of the potential Democratic majority could lead to a factional Speakership contest when the 120th convenes, akin to the Republicans’ infighting after the ousting of Kevin McCarthy in 2023. This could bring legislative governance to a standstill, where new DSA-aligned representatives hold Democratic leadership politically captive to their agenda, which could further forestall any attempt at resumption of support for Ukraine, and congressional action to end the war against Iran.

Red Overperformance

If Republicans retain the Senate, Trump will probably see this as a victory and his party would emerge emboldened. This would inject further vitriol into the Democrats’ moderates-versus-progressives identity crisis as moderates blame the leftists for their underperformance, and Democratic factional infighting could continue deep into the 2028 cycle.

The midterm campaign ends on Tuesday, and the 2028 presidential campaign erupts on Wednesday. Trump will maintain his influence, however shaken, over the GOP, and any moderate dissenter will struggle to overcome his positions on foreign policy even after he is out of office in 2029. Their post-Trump identity crisis would be lessened and delayed as a full-throated rejection of the tariff economy, the war against Iran, threats against Greenland, and abandonment of Ukraine would not have come from the electorate. Trump will face pushback from the Democratic-held House, but the Senate will keep the House from posing an obstacle to the President’s agenda.

Even if action against Iran continues, a Democratic Congress could hold up funding for the war as an alternative measure, even potentially demanding resumption of aid to Ukraine in exchange for said funding, a tactic which partially worked in passing The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026. Trump’s executive order to allow importation of diesel from Russia could also be overturned by a Democratic-held Congress, as critics argue it violates the 2022 Ending Importation of Russian Oil Act and waives the sanctions implemented by the Lindsey Graham Act. A resumption of aid to Ukraine is unlikely without significant political maneuvering by Democrats, but pro-Ukraine voices would be in the majority, and the number of pro-Ukraine Republicans could outnumber the DSA faction by enough seats to overcome their opposition, depending on the exact makeup of the chamber.

Regardless of what happens on Tuesday, one should not expect a total reversal of Trump’s strained relationship with Europe, but instead look to the trends of moderation and progressivism, as well as the potential for legislative opposition to Trump’s agenda, which will set the stage for a transformative post-Trump 2028 presidential race.