12 min read — Analysis | Ukraine | Russia | United States | Geopolitics
Negotiating Ukraine’s Future: The Countdown to a Possible Peace Agreement
By Nikki van Arenthals — International Affairs Correspondent
Edited/reviewed by: Francesco Bernabeu Fornara
January 26, 2025 | 18:00
After nearly three years of relentless conflict, the war in Ukraine has left hundreds of thousands of soldiers dead, tens of thousands of civilians killed, and millions displaced, according to Statista. The devastation is staggering, reshaping Europe’s security landscape and forcing the EU into unprecedented action. Sanctions, arms shipments, and humanitarian aid have defined the bloc’s response, but the war rages on with no end in sight. Or could 2025 mark the year when diplomacy finally takes center stage?
Experts suggest a ceasefire—or even a peace treaty—might be within reach, but only through extraordinary international cooperation and diplomacy. For Europe, the stakes are immense: the outcome of these talks will determine Ukraine’s future and redefine the EU’s role as a security and political actor on the global stage.
As the world watches and waits, one question looms: will leaders seize this moment to end the war, or will Ukraine’s suffering stretch into yet another year?
Making a deal
“I’ll have the war ended in 24 hours,” Donald Trump famously claimed during his 2024 campaign. While that promise remains a work in progress, recent developments suggest peace might be closer than we think. Ukraine’s shifting stance, Russia’s unexpected willingness, and Trump’s relentless diplomacy are laying the groundwork for a possible breakthrough.
Ukraine’s First Vice Prime Minister, Yulia Svyrydenko, recently told Polish radio station RMF FM that Kyiv is open to talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. “It’s time for a dialogue that brings lasting peace to our region,” she said, a far cry from Ukraine’s previous hardline stance that negotiations without major conditions were off the table. With aid drying up and the war taking a heavy toll, Ukraine seems to be realizing that talks may be their only option.
Russia is also showing some signs of life on the diplomatic front. On Trump’s inauguration day, Vladimir Putin held a meeting in Moscow, expressing readiness to discuss the roots of the conflict with the new U.S. administration, Newsweek reports. “We’re ready for balanced diplomacy,” Putin said. Faced with crushing sanctions and the prospect of further isolation under Trump, Russia might be seeing peace talks as a way out—no longer a surrender, but a strategic move.
Trump’s direct approach could be the push both sides need to finally sit down. His 24-hour resolution promise might have been hyperbolic, but the momentum he’s building is undeniable. For the first time in years, peace doesn’t seem impossible. As Trump put it, “Deals are my specialty. Let’s see if we can make this one the deal of the century.”
The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a high-stakes standoff, where both sides hold firm to their objectives. But in the world of geopolitics, even the most entrenched positions can shift when compromise becomes a necessity. Let’s take a closer look at what each side wants—and where they might be willing to bend.
The Playing Cards
For Russia, the goals are non-negotiable: territorial expansion, weakening NATO, and reasserting political control over Ukraine, as noted by the BBC. Moscow aims to solidify its grip on Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, halt NATO’s eastward march, and install a government in Kyiv that’s either pro-Russian or neutral. While these demands are hardline, Russia could still make concessions. A ceasefire might be possible if its territorial claims are recognized, and it might drop its NATO demands if Ukraine stays non-aligned, with secure guarantees in place.
Ukraine, equally resolute, is focused on one thing: the full restoration of its territorial integrity, including Crimea and Donbas, while maintaining sovereignty. According to the Kyiv Independent, Kyiv insists on strong Western security guarantees—either through NATO or EU membership—to safeguard itself from further Russian aggression. But Ukraine could make tactical shifts too. It may be willing to temporarily accept Russian-held regions if it leads to peace. Ukraine might even consider neutrality—without NATO or EU membership—if its security can be guaranteed in other ways. There’s even talk of a demilitarized zone to ease tensions—a shift from territorial demands to a broader focus on stability and long-term peace.
Despite these starkly opposing goals, there’s room for common ground. Both sides could agree on a ceasefire to stop the bloodshed and open the door for talks. However, the road to peace is far from simple. Distrust runs deep, and any agreement will be difficult to enforce.
The involvement of external players—like the US, EU, and NATO—adds complexity to the mix. The US has applied economic sanctions and military aid to make the war costly for Russia, with an eye on upholding Ukraine’s sovereignty. NATO has been strengthening its presence in Eastern Europe, offering Ukraine security guarantees and ensuring that any settlement preserves its credibility. Meanwhile, the EU has ramped up sanctions on Russia and used the prospect of faster EU membership as leverage for Ukraine. According to research done by the Council of Foreign Relations, these powers will play a pivotal role in shaping the negotiations, balancing pressure and support to drive a resolution that serves both strategic and security interests.
Where, when and how?
Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, known for his ties to as well Russia as Donald Trump, has expressed interest in hosting the talks. Orbán has been vocal about the war, predicting it will end in 2025—either through negotiations or one side’s destruction. He has clashed with the EU over sanctions, claiming they’ve hurt Hungary’s economy, and has called for the resumption of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, as reported by News Ukraine. Unsurprisingly, Putin has, during an interview with Russia Today, indicated he’s open to Hungary hosting. Additionally, Orbán’s close relationship with Trump could further bolster Budapest’s bid, as it could help sway American support for Hungary as a host.
But Ukrainian President Zelensky is having none of it. He’s made it clear that Ukraine does not need Orbán’s mediation, telling Infax Ukraine, “Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has no leverage over Russian President Vladimir Putin.”
So while Hungary is eager to host, according to the Kyiv Independent, Zelensky’s rejection suggests that any talks will likely require more influential mediators—direct, decisive, and with the position to push for real change. The United States is expected to play a key role, with traditional neutral locations like Geneva, Vienna, or Helsinki, or even Istanbul, potentially serving as the venue.
It seems the stage is set for Ukraine and Russia to possibly kick off negotiations within the next few weeks to a couple of months. The Guardian reported Putin has signaled his readiness to sit down with U.S. President Donald Trump. Combined with the ongoing military activity and the growing international pressure, we might be looking at talks starting as early as February or March 2025.
Endgame scenarios
If negotiations take place, what might the outcome look like? The end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict could unfold in several ways, each with important consequences for the EU, NATO, and the global balance of power, according to Chatham House research.
One possibility is the Long War scenario, where the conflict drags on endlessly, neither side gaining a decisive victory. This would drain resources, inflict heavy civilian tolls, and keep the world in a tense stand-off. The EU would face economic strain from higher energy costs, refugee pressures, and ongoing diplomatic challenges. NATO would be stretched thin, trying to hold its eastern defenses, while the global community anxiously waits for a breakthrough.
Another scenario is the Frozen Conflict, where both sides agree to a ceasefire without any meaningful resolution, much like the situation on the Korean Peninsula. The EU would be left to manage peacekeeping without a true end to hostilities, while NATO would face the uncomfortable reality of Russian influence over key territories. The global order would become increasingly fragmented, with countries trying to navigate the uncertainty of a divided Europe.
A Negotiated Settlement could bring about a peace deal, but it would come with substantial compromises, according to research done by the Council of Foreign Relations. Ukraine might cede territories like Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk in exchange for security guarantees—perhaps pledging neutrality and not joining NATO, while Russia pulls back troops. In return, international aid could help rebuild Ukraine, and Russia might see some sanctions eased. International oversight, including peacekeeping or monitoring forces, would ensure both sides stick to the agreement. A gradual implementation of these terms could help build trust, but each incremental step would require careful negotiation and cooperation from all parties. While this would reduce tensions, it would also mark the start of a new global landscape, where Russia’s influence is solidified and Western power faces new challenges.
A defining moment
The future of Ukraine—and by extension, Europe—hinges on the delicate balance between diplomacy and defense. As the war enters a critical phase, the decisions made in the coming months will shape the region for decades. If peace talks succeed, Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity may be preserved, but at the cost of substantial concessions. A negotiated settlement could redefine the EU’s role in security, with implications for its internal cohesion and its ability to confront external threats. Conversely, if the conflict drags on, Europe will face a prolonged crisis, marked by economic strain, displacement, and the continuous threat of instability on its borders. The outcome, whether through a hard-fought peace or a prolonged deadlock, will be a defining moment for the EU’s future as a political and strategic actor on the global stage. What happens in Ukraine will resonate far beyond its borders, testing Europe’s unity, resilience, and commitment to a rules-based international order.
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Chatham House. (2024). Four scenarios for the end of the war in Ukraine. Retrieved from https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/10/four-scenarios-end-war-ukraine
Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). (2024). Partners in peacemaking: How the United States and Europe can end the war in Ukraine. Retrieved from https://www.cfr.org/article/partners-peacemaking-how-united-states-and-europe-can-end-war-ukraine
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