On 7 October 2023, the world was jolted by a devastating Hamas terrorist attack on Israel, which claimed over 1200 lives, with the majority of them being civilians, and 251 people were taken hostage. The Israeli Defense Force immediately launched a campaign against Hamas to take back control over Gaza and rescue the hostages. At the start of the war, many nations supported Israel’s right to self-defence under the guidance of international law. However, the war has killed over 54,000 Palestinians, with many of them women and children. The support Israel once had in Europe is beginning to crack as a proportional response became a devastating collective punishment. Germany, a staunch ally of Israel, decided just on 8 August that it would not approve German weapons exports to Israel until further notice. Belgium and the Netherlands also condemn Israel for its expansionist settlement policy in the West Bank. The question now is whether this erosion marks a passing political storm — or the end of Israel’s long-standing impunity in the West.

A Historic Alliance:

Europe’s support for Israel is rooted in the moral and political reckoning that followed World War 2, where many European states felt guilt over the holocaust. Germany in particular felt obliged to support Israel due to their actions in WW2, with West German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer acknowledging in 1951 that Germany committed unspeakable crimes against the Jews. In 1952, Germany and Israel held meetings on reparations, with Germany agreeing to pay millions, eventually billions, in reparations to victims of Nazi genocide. In 1965, both nations established diplomatic relations. Since then, Germany and the EU have continued to support Israel, whether in diplomatic, economic, or military capacity. In 1965, Britain supplied Israel with about 180 Centurion tanks, and just a week before the 1967 war, Britain supplied Israel with weapons and ammunition, which proved to be highly useful for Israel as it defeated the combined armies of Syria, Jordan, and Egypt in 6 days. Germany continued to be an unwavering supporter of a Jewish state. Alongside reconstruction, they shipped military equipment and personnel to modernize Israel, giving an early foundation to Israel’s economic and military capabilities.

Today, the EU is Israel’s largest trading partner and accounts for about a third of Israel’s total trade. The EU and Israel’s main economic agreements are the agreement on agriculture and fisheries, which greatly improved market access (2010), and the “Open Skies” agreement (fully entered into force in 2018), which liberalized EU-Israel air travel. Regarding science and technology, Israel and the EU cooperate through the Association programme signed in 1995, which facilitated Israeli involvement in EU initiatives, most recently being their admission into the Horizon programme created in 2021. This programme is the EU’s flagship research and innovation platform, a vehicle for economic growth and employment, and a means for legitimizing the status of Israeli researchers and universities.

Even with the recent conflict in Gaza, European states demonstrated strong initial support for the retaliatory Israeli invasion of Gaza. The high representative of the EU came out on October 7 and stated that “ EU stands in solidarity with Israel, which has the right to defend itself in line with international law, in the face of such violent and indiscriminate attacks.” However, today, Israel’s support is under strain and under scrutiny.

The Turning Point — Gaza and the E1 Settlements:

The two main turning points for this historical alliance coming under strain are the Gaza humanitarian crisis and the E1 settlements in the West Bank. The Gaza catastrophe has pushed many European leaders and public opinion over the edge, as 53,000 people have been killed in Gaza since May 2025, with 83% of them being civilians according to Israel’s own intelligence. Many genocide scholars, lawyers, and human rights activists, including ones from Israel, say Israel is committing a genocide, as Israel’s selective extermination of Gazans through forced starvation and scorched-earth military offensives constitutes a genocide. The world-leading genocide scholar association backed a resolution stating that Israel’s actions amount to a war crime according to the legal definition of genocide. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the alert “confirms what we have feared”, namely that Gaza is on the brink of famine and that what Gaza is facing is a humanitarian crisis due to food starvation, blockades, and deaths. All of these have placed many European leaders and countries under immediate strain to punish Israel and end the war in Gaza.

The second turning point is the revival of the E1 settlement plan- a plan which links thousands of illegal settlements in occupied East Jerusalem to the expanding Maale Adumim settlement bloc in the occupied West Bank. This plan, which will fully sever East Jerusalem from the rest of the West Bank, will put a dent into the idea of the 2 state solution. This move has been condemned heavily by the UN and 22 countries, including the United Kingdom, Australia, France, and Belgium, who have stated that this move renders the possibility of a 2 state solution and is in violation of international law. Just on September 3, 2025, the Finance Minister of Israel proposed annexing 82% of the West Bank to prevent a Palestinian state, which proved to Brussels and the EU that Israel is abandoning the two-state solution, which is highly supported by the majority of European countries. The EU, a bastion of international law, has supported and collaborated with a state that has shown consistent disregard for those very frameworks, or any notion that he international community can hold them accountable.

Economic and Diplomatic Fallout:

The consequences are moving from rhetoric to reality, with many European investors moving away from Israel. Norway’s $2 trillion (€1.71 trillion) sovereign wealth fund said it will withdraw investments from 11 firms linked to Israel and terminate contracts with assets in the country. The Ireland Strategic Investment Fund (ISIF) has exited six Israeli companies, selling holdings amounting to 3 million. Investments in Israel have declined by 29% in 2023, which is the lowest since 2016, with many reasons being the war’s unpredictable nature, making investments harder. The EU High Representative/Vice-President of the Commission (HR/VP) announced the launch of a review of Article 2 of the EU-Israel Association Agreement, which will review Israel’s compliance with international law and democratic principles, which is essential to the agreement and could be the first step toward revoking the agreement. The formal request to review the article was made by the Netherlands, which has always been a long-term ally of Israel, and it was made due to Israel’s blockade of aid into Gaza. 

On a diplomatic level, the EU-Israeli relationship has completely changed; the diplomatic cover that Israel used to have is gone. The ICC, which has always backed Israel, issued an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defence minister Yoav Gallant, citing allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity. Throughout history, European states used the ICC as a tool to prosecute criminals. Still, it was never used to prosecute European leaders like Tony Blair who many believe should stand trial for the invasion of Iraq. This ICC ruling is unprecedented in history, as it happened to a major European ally, which shows us the tide is changing for Israel.

What’s also most striking is that Belgium, the de facto capital of the EU, has announced that it will recognize the State of Palestine and impose sanctions on Israel. France, the UK, and Canada have all said they are formally in the process of recognizing a state of Palestine. This became true as on 21 September 2025, Keir Starmer announced the United Kingdom’s decision to formally recognise a Palestinian state, followed by France and Canada, all recognizing the state of Palestine. Germany, which has been one of Israel’s staunchest international allies, decided in August that Berlin would not approve German weapons exports to Israel for use in the Gaza Strip “until further notice.” Taken together, these moves suggest that Israel’s once-reliable Western safeguards are no longer guaranteed.

Generational Shift:

The erosion of Israel isn’t just about current political disputes; rather, it’s a deeper shift that is happening. Since 1945, public opinion has been largely supportive of Israel and the Jewish cause, but since the conflict and the widespread destruction which was seen live due to cameras and social media, public opinion has massively shifted. A recent Harvard/Harris poll released shows that 60 percent (%) of Gen Z American voters, aged 18 to 24, expressed support for Hamas over Israel in the ongoing conflict. The Pew Research poll shows that 53% of us adults viewed Israel unfavourably, up from 42% in 2022, and data also shows that among republicans under 50, unfavourable views rose from 35% to 50%. Trump, who has always been a strong supporter of Israel, acknowledged in September 2025 that Israel was losing the “world of public relations,” saying the carnage in Gaza was hurting its international standing. He also acknowledged that “Israel was the strongest lobby I’ve ever seen. They had total control over Congress, and now they don’t. I’m a little surprised to see that.”

In Europe, public opinion has also shifted negatively against Israel. Below is a study done by YouGov, which shows that public opinion has been at its lowest since recordings started.