Overall, while most polls suggest a race favoring the opposition, the lack of consistency across surveys makes it difficult to draw firm conclusions. Nevertheless, according to the most recent polls of Politico, Tisza is currently ahead of Fidesz, leading by 11%, showing a persistent trend, and a difference in voters which will certainly present a significant challenge to the current regime. 

The Tilted Playing Field

While several polls show that the glory days of Fidesz are long gone, the way in which votes are converted into parliamentary seats remains a key pillar of the Orbán regime’s strength. Since 2010, Fidesz has consistently secured a two-thirds parliamentary majority, enough to amend the consitution. 

Orbán did not shy away from abusing this power, distorting the electoral system and disregarding the standards of a level playing field. While the government has never publicly acknowledged these distortions, during one of his campaign events, the Hungarian Prime Minister spoke rather openly;.

“In the previous elections, we always obtained a two-thirds majority even though the difference between the opposition and us was not two-thirds, because the electoral system works in a way that in the end, it magnifies even a small victory and tilts it in favor of the winner.”

Hungary operates under a mixed-member majoritarian electoral system, in which voters cast ballots both for individual candidates in single-member districts and for party lists. Parties must surpass a 5% threshold for a seat in the parliament. A 2011 reform introduced the so-called “winner compensation” mechanism, aiming to enlarge the seat share of the leading party. At a recent forum, the Prime Minister acknowledged the discrepancy between vote share and seat allocation:

 “By no means should anyone think that in earlier elections we won by the same proportion as the number of seats in the parliament show.”

While several polls show the breakthrough of the Hungarian opposition, the structural advantages built up by the Orbán regime should not be underestimated. Electoral districts have been redrawn in recent years to favor Fidesz, with voters in certain constituencies carrying up to 1.5 times more weight than others. 

State Resources and Political Dominance

Fidesz does not only dominate national institutions, but also maintains overwhelming dominance over the Hungarian media landscape, and campaign resources. State-aligned media outlets present one-sided perspectives, vilifying the opposition, often portraying them as agents of the Ukrainian government, or the European Union. The party’s 2026 campaign, and its use of billboards and mass advertising, has focused heavily on the conflict of Russia and Ukraine, claiming that an opposition victory would result in Hungary drifting into the war At a recent rally organized by Tisza, several individuals identified as pro-government activists staged a provocation, raising a Ukrainian flag. Government aligned media later portrayed the act as definitive proof of the party’s ties to the Ukrainian secret services. 

The party has also spent approximately €4.8 billion on measures such as tax cuts and low-interest loans in recent years, mostly aimed at families and mothers – key voting groups for electoral victory. While the government presents these policies as economic support, many question the sustainability and timing of the measures. Furthermore, government bodies often allocate resources to popularize their preferred candidate, Viktor Orbán. Hungarians residing abroad have recently received their ballots accompanied by a campaign letter from the Prime Minister.

With limited access to traditional media, Tisza has relied heavily on social media platforms, forums and events to mobilize supporters. For them, the party’s campaign has emphasized issues such as the quality of public services and Hungary’s relationship with the European Union.

Despite the imbalance in resources, opposition rallies have drawn significant crowds. The exact figures are difficult to verify due to restrictions on aerial recordings, but many observers suggest that opposition events draw more attention than those of Fidesz. 

State Surveillance of the Opposition and Political Pressure

To further strengthen its position, the Hungarian government has reportedly involved intelligence services against Tisza. In July 2025, the National Investigation Agency’s cybercrime unit confiscated several computers and external drives from two men, both having previously worked as IT specialists for the opposition party. The investigation was launched following an anonymous report alleging that the two individuals were involved in the making and distribution of footage involving the sexual abuse of minors. However, forensic analysts found no supporting evidence. 

The investigation was followed by a significant data leak involving users registered on an application created by the Tisza party. The unusual circumstances surrounding the case were revealed by Bence Szabo, a senior investigator of the National Investigation Agency. 

The case led many to suspect the misuse of state institutions. 

Initially, the government denied all allegations. However, the Minister heading the Prime Minister’s Office, Gergely Gulyas, later acknowledged the operation, reframing the scandal as a counterintelligence operation, claiming that the IT specialists were linked to Ukrainian intelligence.

Foreign Interference in the Elections

During the early years of Orbán’s political career, he positioned himself as an opponent of Soviet influence, famously campaigning with slogans such as “Russians go home”. In recent years, however, he unquestionably steered his country towards Russia’s sphere of influence. 

Russian influence in Hungary has long been a topic of discussion; however Russian President Vladimir Putin might raise the stakes this April. According to several European national security sources, the Kremlin has already infiltrated Budapest to interfere in the 2026 Elections – found out VSquare. 

A week before the elections, Serbian media  reported that explosives and detonators had been discovered near the TurkStream gas pipeline. The authorities are currently investigating the suspicion of sabotage. Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó reacted by stating:

“We firmly reject this latest attack against our sovereignty, since an attack on the security of our energy supply cannot be interpreted as anything other than an attack on our sovereignty.”

The incident has quickly become a point of political tension. Critics have raised the possibility of a false-flag operation intended to shift the narrative during the final days of the campaign, while the government pointed to potential foreign interference. 

According to the Washington Post, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Services (SVR), have prepared a report, in which they urge drastic action during the campaign. The report has been verified by the European Intelligence services.  The SVR suggested “the staging of an assassination attempt on Viktor Orbán.” Which they claimed would “fundamentally alter the entire paradigm of the election campaign”. 

The situation has been further complicated by a recently leaked recording of a call between Hungarian and Russian foreign ministers, Péter Szijjártó and Sergei Lavrov. In the recording, Szijjarto can be heard discussing the possibility of lifting sanctions affecting the sister of Russian oligarch, Alisher Usmanov. Allegations that Hungary has shared confidential EU discussions with Russia have circulated for years, and the recording seems to confirm these concerns. 

Another recently revealed transcript reported by Bloomberg details a conversation between Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orbán, in which they discussed the possibility of hosting a U.S.-Russia conference in Budapest. During the call, the Hungarian Prime minister offered his support, stating:

“Yesterday our friendship rose to such a high level that I can help in any way,” while also likening the Russian President to a lion, and himself to a mouse in a fable, corroborating long-standing accusations that Orbán acts as Moscow’s Trojan horse within the EU.  

A Turning Point, Regardless of the Result

While Orbán’s Fidesz party has undoubtedly consolidated its influence over Hungary’s legal and institutional systems, the current opposition appears stronger than at any point during the party’s 16 years in power. According to recent polling and political trends, Fidesz is expected to face a significant electoral challenge, although Orbán’s tricks should not be underestimated. 

If current polling proves accurate, Fidesz may face difficulty in shifting odds in their favor, even with large-scale voter mobilization efforts. Polls and several observers predict a potential opposition victory. However, due to weakened institutional checks and balances, many critical elements of political power are likely to remain in the hands of Fidesz, unless the opposition secures a ⅔ supermajority. Nevertheless, a degree of political realignment in Hungary seems inevitable, although the scale of this shift remains uncertain.