While the political theatre in Washington, Paris and Berlin has dominated the news in recent months, behind the scenes of the Brussels stage, key positions have once again been divided. In the Europe of 2025, Ursula von der Leyen has arguably claimed an unrivalled leading role for herself. Now that all her fellow Commission nominees have passed the European Parliament audit, not only has she secured her position as president of the European Commission, but also assured herself a strong starting position on the three-dimensional stage on which she acts, argue Kristian van der Bij and Hidde Wedman. 

Ahead of her second term as president of the European Commission, von der Leyen has consolidated a strengthened grip on the EU’s executive. Through strategic appointments, she has assembled a team that effectively adheres to her leadership. Prominent commissioners from her first term have now been replaced by individuals who support her agenda almost unconditionally. In the case of former internal market commissioner Thierry Breton—infamously in Brussels circles—Von der Leyen, apparently exasperated by the commissioner’s rogue conduct, called French President Macron directly to request a change in France’s commissioner nominee for her new cabinet.

These carefully approved commissioners have now minimised internal opposition and enhanced her central authority within the Commission. In addition, Von der Leyen redesigned the European Commission with multiple executive vice-presidents overseeing different portfolio groups of commissioners. This complex structure makes it more difficult to reach consensus without her intervention, strengthening her role as the ultimate decision-maker.

This strengthened position of Von der Leyen within the Commission has important implications for the EU as a whole. Indeed, a strong Commission President promotes efficiency and coherence in policymaking, which enhances the stability and direction of the Union. Such a reinterpretation of her role as president may indeed likely lead to a precedent of more decisiveness and centralisation within the Commission. At the same time, this consolidation of power raises the question of whether the Commission retains enough room for internal checks and balances, and whether this calls for a strengthened democratic mandate for the president—not least because of ever increasing criticism over the EU’s so-called ‘democratic deficit’ and its growing politicisation.

The Franco-German axis, the traditional engine of Europe, is squeaking and creaking. Both countries have an uncertain road ahead marred by political instability, with a most likely outgoing chancellor and far-right surge in Germany, and an ungovernable parliament in France, which has now embarked on its fourth government in a year. Arguably, Ursula von der Leyen may see her leading role on the European stage strengthened by the weakened Franco-German axis, especially within the European Council, within which member states are represented.

Ursula von der Leyen moreover finds in the new Council president all-rounder António Costa, advocate for her second presidency. His pragmatic style provides Von der Leyen with a reliable partner in streamlining decision-making at the highest level. In her eyes, this is likely a significant improvement over her troubled relationship with its predecessor Charles Michel, which often led to tensions and inefficiencies—exemplified by the infamous ‘Sofagate’.

Poland’s EU presidency, furthermore, headed by ally Prime Minister Donald Tusk, provides Von der Leyen with additional momentum. Tusk is her party colleague within the European People’s Party (EPP) pan-EU political grouping, allowing her to put key issues such as security policy and EU enlargement on the agenda during the first half of 2025.

On the world stage, Von der Leyen is joined by Kaja Kallas, the Union’s new foreign policy representative. Unlike Kallas’ predecessor Joseph Borrell, in Kallas Von der Leyen has an ally in many foreign policy areas. With an unaccountable and unpredictable United States led by Donald Trump, it is up to the EU with Von der Leyen and Kallas, and the security policy-focused Polish EU presidency, to position itself as a decisive and independent geopolitical player. Top of the priority list; preventing Washington from forcing Ukraine into unjust peace.

With her power grab within the Commission, upon the backdrop of political instability in capitals and a growing need for European autonomy on the world stage, Von der Leyen has the momentum to show the EU the way by 2025. A heavy burden, marked by the open question regarding whether Von der Leyen knows how to translate such momentum into concrete progress. After all, in the spotlight, every misstep is mercilessly scrutinised. That said, if she does manage to fill this role successfully, she will leave a lasting legacy and set a standard for future Commission presidents, for better or worse.