“We recovered from the hit, but the wounds remain” – Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán remarked in an interview, reflecting on his 14^th year in power. His statement came in response to a scandal regarding a controversial presidential pardon, which reshaped the political landscape of Hungary.

Hungary’s government faced a turbulent year in 2024, marked by political, economic and moral crises, resulting in multiple resignations of public officials. In the previous years, the country faced an economic decline, resulting in unprecedented rates of inflation on food products and increasing prices on the housing market. 

Meanwhile, a new opposing political party, Péter Magyar’s Tisza has overtaken Orbán’s Fidesz in all recent polls. With Magyar’s rising popularity, Orbán faces a serious political threat for the first time. Magyar promises closer ties with the EU and a crackdown on corruption, advocating for a return to liberal democracy if elected. In an interview with Politico in October 2024, he stated: “We are pro-EU, but we are not blind to the shortcomings of the EU,”

Orbán’s Role in the European Union

Since 2010, Orbán’s years in power were characterized by constant clashes with the European Union. He received criticism for demolishing the rule of law, the infringement of human rights and using EU funds for getting his close-circle wealthy, including his friends and family members. 

Orbán has often been called the “Trojan horse of Russia” due to his close ties with Russian president Vladimir Putin. The Hungarian Prime Minister also imposes sharp double standards when it comes to national sovereignty. He often criticized the EU for attacking the sovereignty of his country, while refusing to comment on a 2021 Russian cyber-attack targeting the IT systems of the Hungarian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Shortly before the 2022 elections, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Péter Szijjártó called the incident a “campaign lie”, despite documents proving the awareness of the state on the matter. 

Despite Russia clearly having violated Hungarian sovereignty, Orbán in a recent interview given to Neue Zürcher Zeitung has stated:  “Putin has always kept his word. My experience of the last 15 years is that Hungary can trust Russia. “

Source: Kremlin.ru, 2015

Another concern voiced by the EU, was the lack of press freedom within Hungary, which significantly deteriorated under Orbán’s leadership. Reporters without borders placed Hungary on the 67^th place on the 2024 World Press Freedom Index, stating, “Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has built a true media empire subject to his party’s orders.” – and while independent journalism still exists, media outlets face hardships because of the government’s regulatory measures. 

As a reaction to the democratic backsliding of Hungary, the EU has responded by withholding €16 billion allocated for underdeveloped regions and post-covid recovery. The absence of these funds further contributed to the economic decline the country faces and the erosion of the public support of Fidesz. 

A Domestic Scandal to Change It all

Beyond the rising tensions with the European Union and the country’s economic struggles, the political landscape of Hungary was also shaken by an internal scandal. Katalin Novák, the president of Hungary at the time, had resigned as a result of a controversy surrounding a presidential pardon given to a man convicted of covering up crimes related to the sexual abuse of minors at a children’s home. The pardon was co-signed by Minister of Justice at the time, Judit Varga, who also resigned shortly after the incident was known to the public. The scandal sparked further public backlash, resulting in a large-scale protest in Budapest. 

The situation was made worse by the fact that the protection of children had played a key role in the justification Orbán’s anti-LGBT sentiment. In 2021, The Hungarian government passed the so called “Child Protection Act” – which prohibits minors from accessing content that depicts homosexuality or sex-change. The act further restricted sexual education for minors, leading to questions of sexual identity no longer being discussed in public education. Regardless, the ‘protection of children’ has continued to be a key element of Orbán’s speeches, and the government’s messages towards its citizens.

Shortly after the resignation of Novák and Varga, the latter’s ex-husband and former member of Fidesz, Péter Magyar, appeared in an interview criticizing the regime, exposing its decisions, while sharing his experience as an insider of the system.  In the interview he dismissed having political ambitions, a claim that would soon prove untrue. Following the interview, the public quickly recognized him as potential contestant against Orbán on the 2026 elections.

Péter Magyar

Magyar was swift to act on the rising tensions, announcing that he is working on the creation of a party in March 2024. He made several promises, such as having more constructive conversations with NATO, joining the European Public Prosecutor’s Office to tackle corruption, and several other points aiming to restore a democratic rule of law in Hungary.  

He later claimed to have substantial evidence of corruption involving high-ranking officials. In March 2024, he released a conversation with his ex-wife, Varga. In the recording, she claimed that officials – including a close confidant of Orbán – had their names erased from prosecution documents related to a corruption scandal. While the recording confirms that Hungary’s judiciary does not operate as an independent body, the evidence did not result in any consequences. Magyar’s claims fueled public discontent, which aided his ambitions in becoming a political contender. 

In April, he merged into an already existing but inactive party, Tisza, and confirmed their participation on the European Parliament Elections. Tisza promised a moderate right-wing approach to politics. Despite the party only becoming active in April, they secured 7 mandates on the EP elections held in June, being the second most popular party after Fidesz, with 11 mandates.  The results simultaneously meant that other oppositional parties within the Hungarian parliament have lost public support, raising questions of their legitimacy. 

 The popularity of Tisza keeps increasing. The most recent polls of Republikon Research Institution show Magyar’s party 7% ahead of Fidesz, indicating a 39% support from decided voters. The outcomes of the polls mark a significant change in Hungarian politics. While the elections are only to be held in 2026, the trends are already clear; Hungarian party preferences are quickly polarizing, with Péter Magyar standing a chance at replacing Viktor Orbán, potentially as Prime Minister. 

Source: Free Malaysia Today, 2024

Deepening Economic Decline

As Fidesz struggles with the rising opposition, its popularity continues to erode due to the declining economic metrics of Hungary. As a result of the country’s close ties to the German economy, the decline of the European automotive industry has resulted in economic recession.

In the meanwhile, the government failed to deal with the rising prices and the devaluation of Hungary’s currency, the Forint. As the root of several problems can be directly traced back to the country’s dependence on the German economy, the issues it causes manifest in a similar manner. 

The first three quarters of 2023 were characterized by a decline in terms of the volume of GDP – reported the Hungarian Central Statistical Office. In 2024, the Hungarian economy was stagnating, with production underperforming expectations, and the annual GDP growth rates having been declining over the past four years.  The economic situation was worsened by the devaluation of the Hungarian Forint.

For Hungarian citizens, this meant increasing prices in stores and on the housing market. Orbán’s 15 years in power were generally characterized by constant growth, until the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the EU is withholding the recovery funds due to the rule-of-law concerns, making recovery even harder.

The New Era of Hungarian Politics

The economic decline, numerous political scandals and the arrival of Péter Magyar have created a new era in Hungarian politics, where dissatisfaction with the regime is on the rise.
Viktor Orbán has several powerful allies, Including President Trump, Marine Le Pen and other members of the Patriots for Europe group within the European Parliament.  He recently met with Alice Weidel, the leader of the German far-right party AfD. Prior to their joint press conference, he referred to her as the ‘future of Germany’. Weidel later said that Hungary is “a symbol for us, for Alternative for Germany, a symbol of reason and a symbol of sovereignty and independence. I would like that for our country too.” This suggests that an alliance may be forming between Fidesz and AfD.

Magyar enjoys a wide range of political support within the European Union. Manfred Weber, the president of the European People’s Party (EPP), has openly supported Magyar, stating:
“Just as Tusk defeated Kaczynski in Poland, Tisza, and Péter Magyar will defeat you in Hungary. Mr. Orbán, you are the past, Péter Magyar is the future.” 

With the support of the EPP, the largest political group within the European Parliament, Péter may stand a real chance of defeating Viktor Orbán. During the 2022 elections, an unsuccessful attempt was made by several opposition parties to defeat Orbán as a collation, however this resulted in a landslide Fidesz victory. This time however, the voters opposing the Orbán regime have lined up behind a single party.

The Hungarian government dominated by Fidesz, seems to have acknowledged the oppositional threat, responding to it by redrawing the borders of several electoral constituencies and using their media dominance to worsen the reputation of their opponent. There is still more than a year left until the next parliamentary elections in Hungary. However, it has become almost certain that the elections will result in a system dominated by two parties, as for the first time in years, the Hungarian Prime Minister faces an opponent with public support rivaling his own.