NATO is in crisis, and the Baltics may pay the ultimate price. In the early months of his presidency, Trump’s anti-European actions and rhetoric set NATO on a dangerous path. From J.D. Vance’s attacks on U.S. allies at the Munich Security Conference to Trump and Vance bullying Ukrainian President Zelensky in the Oval Office, to Trump’s series of devastating tariffs that is jeopardising transatlantic business worth $9.5 trillion annually, the administration’s actions have sent a clear message: the U.S. no longer has loyalty to its European partners. Trump’s repeated anti-European talking points and his initiation of peace talks with Russia in Saudi Arabia, without involving the Europeans, have only deepened the rift. Much of this has to be to the benefit of the Russians, who have viewed the first few months of Trump’s second term with delight. Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president who’s now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, wrote on X, “If you’d told me just three months ago that these were the words of the [U.S.] president, I would have laughed out loud.” The fractured western alliance has put NATO in jeopardy and vulnerable to attack. Recently many in the Baltics have been sounding the alarm on a major incoming attack from Moscow, and have been preparing to defend themselves for this very real possibility. This article will examine the possibility of such an attack and where it could possibly take place.

Threat to the Baltics

European leaders of NATO member states have been completely blindsided by Trump’s total abandonment of their alliance. Particularly many NATO member states in the Baltic region have become increasingly worried, as they feel their defenses are already being probed by the Russians for an eventual attack. A diplomatic source with knowledge of the situation, warned that Moscow would notice with interest that Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia have been excluded. “Russia and our publics will clearly assess that we are sold out by the US, but also by [the] UK and France,” said the source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Linas Kojala, director of the Geopolitics and Security Studies Center, a Vilnius-based think tank, says many people in the Baltics are caught off-guard by the “sharp change in rhetoric” from the U.S. around the War in Ukraine. “People are very surprised that the U.S. is suddenly becoming a player in global politics that echoes similar positions as the Kremlin, at least in a narrative sense.”

The threats to Baltic states like Estonia are already real, as Russia has already shown its willingness to conduct hybrid forms of warfare against the NATO member state. In 2020 the EU sanctioned Russian intelligence personnel for cyberattacks against Estonia that breached classified information and sensitive data stored in Estonian government ministries. Now Estonia is preparing for more possible attacks of this nature from Russia, as the Baltic nations plan to decouple from a Soviet-era joint power grid with Russia and Belarus. Erkki Sapp, member of the management board of Elering, Estonia’s state-owned gas and power grid operator, said recently that the Estonian state “has prepared and takes this very seriously,” regarding a future cyber attack from Russia.

These hybrid attacks could very well be a test to find weak points within Estonia for example, in preparation for a larger, more directed attack. In a recent interview Major Reserve of the National Guard of Ukraine Oleksiy Hetman claimed Russia would expand its war outside of Ukraine, and attack a NATO ally. “There were calculations that the Russians might conduct a local war in about six months.” He goes on to give specifics on where he believes the Russians might strike, and what it means for NATO. “Most likely, it will be a Baltic country. It could be Estonia, particularly Narva. ‘Little green men’ could enter there. In this way, Russia will test NATO’s Article 5 response.” Although Hetman’s prediction has not proved correct just yet, the conclusion that NATO and Russia are just steps away from war is closer to becoming a reality. As Hetman points out, Russia’s “little green men” could easily infiltrate Estonia, sparking a conflict that would force NATO to choose between defending its principles or watching its credibility crumble. A swift Russian strike on Estonia could serve as the perfect test of NATO’s resolve, particularly given the internal divisions within the alliance. The lack of American troops in the nation can also make it a soft target for Putin. Only 55 active duty American Troops are located in Estonia, compared with 35,068 in Germany. Additionally, the US is now considering a proposal that would cut 10,000 troops from Eastern Europe, further weakening Eastern Europe’s defenses. NATO’s future is increasingly uncertain. Its maintained unity is being eroded by the very forces, both internal and external, that have spurred Russia’s growing expansionism and the Trump administration’s anti-NATO actions.

How likely is an invasion?

Although an attack on a NATO ally in the Baltic would be Russian President Vladimir Putin’s biggest gamble yet, it would align with years of Putin’s rhetoric and recent actions. Throughout his time as leader of Russia, Putin has shown no reservations on invading his neighbors. Chechnya, Georgia and now Ukraine have all been victims of Putin’s expansion. The most recent war in Ukraine has proved to be the riskiest gamble Putin has taken thus far and at the moment, Putin has seemingly been able to come out of it relatively politically unscathed. Despite massive Russian losses and an economy on the brink of collapse, he has been able to manufacture continued support of BRICS’s nations and worked out a deal with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to receive thousands of extra troops for the war from North Korea. The election of Donald Trump, who he has a history of getting his way with, has also bolstered Putin’s position with a possible peace deal in Ukraine, which could hand Russia key territorial possessions, economic and investment opportunities and guarantees of Ukraine never joining NATO. Putin would most likely use the excuse of an expanding NATO alliance in the Baltics for a justification of a new incursion in the Baltics, just as he has done before with Ukraine. One of the main justifications for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was to “no longer just watch what is happening, (Regarding NATO’s expansion to the east). It would be absolutely irresponsible on our part.” In his speech declaring war on Ukraine mentioned NATO at least 11 times, continuing to double down on their “anti-Russia hostility” and aggression shown towards his nation. In reality, Ukraine’s prospects of joining the alliance were virtually nonexistent at the time, and had not significantly improved since Kyiv was first fobbed off with platitudes at a landmark NATO summit way back in 2008.

Another world leader who seems to despise NATO as much as Putin is Trump and his administration. Controversial unelected billionaire, and senior advisor to U.S president Donald Trump Elon Musk has most reshared a post on X by Senator Mike Lee, a Utah Republican, that the U.S. should “Exit NATO now!” a post that Musk reshared, adding, “We really should. Doesn’t make sense for America to pay for the defense of Europe.” Moreover, when an Atlantic reporter was inadvertently added to a Signal group chat among high-ranking Trump administration officials discussing military strategy, the exchanges revealed a startling disdain for America’s closest allies. Figures like Vice President J.D. Vance openly ridiculed European partners, with Vance bluntly stating, “I fully share your loathing of European freeloading. It’s PATHETIC.”

Although the biggest difference between Putin’s recent invasions and with NATO is the nuclear deterrence that NATO offers its members. Although with the current state of NATO, would the world risk millions of dead for a Russian invasion in the Baltics? Although, we may not be fully able to really answer this question, the recent appeasement of Russian actions from the US, and Russia’s current backing from major nuclear powers like the US and China, can lead us to believe that the US would not support such a response, if any at all.

An attack on a NATO ally in the Baltics would be Putin’s most audacious move yet, but it fits his long-standing pattern of aggression against neighboring states. From Chechnya to Georgia to Ukraine, he has repeatedly exploited weakness and division to expand Russian influence, often under the pretext of resisting NATO. Despite heavy losses in Ukraine, Putin has maneuvered to strengthen his position, securing support from BRICS nations, striking deals with North Korea, and now benefiting from a Trump administration that shares his disdain for NATO. With Trump’s America openly questioning its commitment to European defense, echoed by figures like Elon Musk and J.D Vance, Putin may see an opportunity to test NATO’s resolve in the Baltics, just as he did in Ukraine. If he succeeds, the alliance’s credibility could shatter, leaving Europe vulnerable to further Russian encroachment. The question is no longer if Putin will challenge NATO, but whether a fractured West can still muster the unity to stop him.

Conclusion

NATO’s future hangs in the balance as internal divisions and external threats push the alliance toward collapse. The Trump administration’s abandonment of European allies, coupled with Russia’s aggressive posturing, has left the Baltics now more vulnerable to invasion from Russia. With Putin emboldened by Western disunity and Trump’s anti-NATO rhetoric, a calculated strike on Estonia or another Baltic state could serve as the ultimate test of NATO’s credibility. If the alliance fails to respond decisively, its foundational principle of collective defense, enshrined in Article 5, will crumble, marking the end of NATO as a deterrent against Russian expansion. The West now faces a stark choice: reaffirm its commitment to transatlantic security or watch as Putin exploits its fractures, reshaping Europe’s geopolitical landscape in his favor. The time to act is running out.