On September 8th, Norwegians will be heading to the polls to elect a new electoral configuration in their parliament, the Storting. You may be asking why the elections of the small Nordic state matter to NATO. Well, it can be summed up in a few words—Svalbard and Arctic defense. If you have not heard of the remote archipelago and the importance of the greater Arctic region in NATO defense strategy, then brewing geopolitical tensions with Russia will surely include this strategic region soon enough. 

Situated about 1100 km north of Tromsø, Svalbard lies between Greenland and Russia’s arctic territories in the Barents Sea. Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, life on Svalbard and the surrounding Norwegian archipelagos was relatively quiet, with the local polar bear population posing the only threat. However, the invasion of Ukraine brought new significance to the region. Russia’s blatant disregard of Ukrainian sovereignty has sparked worries that Moscow may encroach on Norwegian sovereignty over Svalbard and the immediate area. 

Norwegian politicians in Oslo have argued whether the country should rapidly militarize its arctic territories at the expense of the 1920 Svalbard Treaty, which prohibits permanent military installations and the utilization of the archipelago for warlike purposes. Meanwhile, other parties argue that Norway should maintain the status quo to ensure a cautious approach to the unpredictable Russian threat. Visions for the Arctic’s future vary amongst Norway’s four main parties: Labour, Progress, Conservative, and Centre. 

Despite these differences, there is a broad consensus that a more substantial Norwegian presence in the Arctic is no longer a matter of choice. Norway historically increased its defense spending (Approximately 51.2 billion) over the next 12 years, because according to Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, Norway “needs a defence that is fit for purpose in the emerging security environment.” The potential impact of a US withdrawal from Europe on NATO’s defensive capabilities adds a global dimension to the discussion. In the scenario of a US withdrawal from Europe, Norway will be a key player in bolstering a European defense of the Arctic region. 

Nevertheless, a new governing coalition in September is assured, with the current government consisting of the Labour and the Centre parties collapsing in January due to the Centre Party withdrawing its support for the adoption of EU energy laws. In response, support for the Centre Party has rapidly decreased to around 7%, indicating that the current frontrunner, Labour (29%), will need to form a coalition with the Progress Party (20%). However, if the Progress Party underperforms,  a deal with the Conservatives (19%) may likely become necessary. With this in mind, NATO must keep a close eye on Norway’s upcoming election because its outcome determines the future of NATO’s Arctic defense strategy. While Norway’s Parliament has eleven parties represented, this article will only cover the country’s four major parties, which currently lead in the polls and traditionally hold the most representation in the Storting. 

Labour 

Currently, Labour holds 48 seats in parliament and are currently polling at approximately 29% making a Labour victory in September look promising. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Støre, the party has argued for increased militarization while still adhering to the 1920 Svalbard Treaty. As Støre argued, in an interview with Bloomberg, “We will defend it [Svalbard] if we have to.” However, the prime minister coined the term ‘High North, low pressure,’ which forms the foundations of Norway’s approach being visually presence, consistent and predictable. The party expresses that rapid militarization would only anger the Russians, while too little would leave Svalbard and the surrounding area vulnerable to Russian provocations. This stance illustrates Labour’s effort to balance diplomacy with deterrence: maintaining the peaceful principles of the Svalbard Treaty while reinforcing Norwegian sovereignty within the area through increased defense budgets and strategic presence. A Labour victory, which the polls show to be the most likely, will mean that NATO cooperation in the Arctic will remain strong fulfilling the alliance’s interest of protecting its northern flank with Svalbard serving as a non-militarized yet strategic outpost. 

Progress 

Progress has 20 seats in parliament and are polling at 20%, conveying that the party will be the runner up in September’s election. According to some, the party represents Norway’s populist movement. They view NATO as the cornerstone of Norway’s security and continue to advocate for Norwegian participation in NATO exercises. According to then-Progress MP, Christian Tybring-Gjedde on Norway’s security in the Arctic and the rest of the country, “as a nation, we will now have to spend much more of our resources securing the country.” A Progress-led government will establish a much more assertive security doctrine in the Arctic allowing for the increased military visibility. While the party hasn’t officially called for the nullification of the 1920 Svalbard Treaty, their discourse on increased Norwegian and NATO military initiatives in the High North could very well endanger that treaty and potentially anger the Russians. 

Conservatives

The Labour Party’s main opposition, the Conservatives currently has 36 seats in parliament and are polling approximately 19%, putting them neck and neck with the Progress Party. However, similar to Labour, the Conservatives emphasized continued adherence to the 1920 Svalbard treaty and other laws concerning Arctic security. However, the conservatives identical to the Progress Party differ in that they want to starkly enhance Norway and NATO’s presence in the region. Conservative MPs, such as Peter Frølich, argue for the strengthening and modernizing total defense throughout Norway, including the Arctic. From 2012 – 2020, the Conservatives, during the two conservative majority governments, issued a heightened military presence and numerous exercises in the region in order to address the ‘power struggle on Norway’s doorstep.” A Conservative victory will likely continue promoting regional defense cooperation with the alliance through joint exercises and infrastructure projects on Svalbard and Norway’s other arctic possessions. 

Centre 

The Centre Party has 28 seats in parliament and is currently polling at around 7%, the low numbers likely due to their responsibility for the Labour-Centre coalition’s collapse. In nature, the party is eurosceptic and NATO-skeptic, a platform that carries over to their stances on arctic security.  It’s important to note that the Centre Party is not anti-NATO but they rather “want to strengthen national control and support Norway’s presence in the archipelago,” according to Emilie Enger Mehl, PM Støre Minister of Justice until Centre’s withdrawal from the coalition. A centre-party government would prioritize the security of Svalbard and the immediate area of national control rather than relying on NATO for assistance. However, with the Centre Party responsible for the coalition collapse, their support has drastically plummeted, so NATO should not be too worried about a Centre victory; however, as seen in the recent Canadian and Australian elections, electoral miracles are possible. 

What is the Takeaway?

With a collapsed coalition and a pivotal election on the horizon, Norway stands at a critical juncture in shaping its Arctic Security doctrine. While Norway has massively increased its defense spending in recent months, the initiatives and strategies that the country’s increased budget should bolster differs amongst Norway’s big four political parties, signaling a new era of Norway’s relationship with the alliance. With US President Trump’s reintroduction into the political arena and his comment on European “free-loading,” a debate on Europe’s reliance on US security has reemerged. The potential impact of a US withdrawal from Europe on NATO’s defensive capabilities adds a global dimension to the discussion. However, for Norway, which has heavily relied on the US military for defense and capacity-building, how the country will navigate a prospective decreased American presence in Europe is crucial to explore. 

While a Labour majority and a status quo of Norwegian-NATO relations appear likely, a Progress or Conservatives victory could significantly influence NATO’s interests. Most importantly, this election could redefine Norway’s internal defense priorities and commitment to securing this increasingly contested region. However, as the saying goes, “don’t trust the polls too much,” as electoral miracles worldwide have occurred in several elections in recent months.