1) Barnier’s challenge: steering a right-wing government through France’s divided politics

Can Michel Barnier unite a fractured France, or will his leadership falter against a powerful left-wing opposition? That is a question left hanging at the forefront of French citizens’ minds.

On September 5, 2024, President Emmanuel Macron appointed his new PM, a conservative politician, Michel Barnier. Macron’s move was strategic: he wanted to stabilize a fractured government after his party, Renaissance, lost its legislative majority to the New Popular Front (NFP), a left-wing electoral alliance formed on 10 June 2024 in opposition to both Macron’s camp and the far-right National Rally (RN). From then on, Barnier would have to face the challenge of reuniting a divided France. After securing 188 seats in the National Assembly during the June 2024 French legislative elections, NFP became one of Barnier’s biggest roadblocks. One might wonder: can he push his right-wing policies through a National Assembly powerful enough to stir public dissent?

On top of that, Barnier has to navigate divisions within his political party, Les Républicains (LR), scattered between the pro far-right National Rally, and the more centrists. Facing resistance from all corners, can Barnier balance this powerful opposition, or will his government be paralyzed by it? What makes him the man for this job, and how does his political past prepare him for the battles ahead?

2) A legacy of conservative values and European diplomacy

Michel Barnier’s political journey has been rooted in conservative values. He has worn many hats as Minister of Agriculture, Foreign Aairs, and chief Brexit negotiator. Known for his pro-European stance, his real strength lies in his steady, pragmatic style, centered on building consensus. This quality could prove invaluable in his current and future leadership. He is also recognized for his calm, methodical style, and has so far been seen as a stabilizing force in times of political turbulence.

President Macron selected Barnier for his reputation as a “safe pair of hands” to bring stability to a fractured government. But even with his experience, Barnier now faces one of his toughest challenges yet: a left-wing opposition newly empowered by NFP, and worries around his tacit support from the far-right National Rally party. Nonetheless, an Ifop poll conducted for the French weekly Journal du Dimanche found that 52 percent of respondents expressed satisfaction with newly appointed Prime Minister Michel Barnier. Will this support suce in holding up Barnier’s conservative values against a more emboldened left-wing opposition?

3) Facing the Left: legislative opposition and protests

Led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the party La France Insoumise (LFI) known for his Eurosceptic views, the NFP remains Barnier’s strongest resistance at the onset of his time as PM. Mélenchon believes Barnier represents the continuation of Macron’s failed neoliberal policies. He has not refrained from criticism around Barnier’s appointment, which triggered over 130 protests across France. With more than 100,000 demonstrators rallying against labor and economic policies, protesters decried Barnier as “Macron’s man,” signaling widespread dissatisfaction.

NFP’s inuence in parliament brings the looming threat of no-condence votes, forcing Barnier into dicult compromises to avoid a legislative standstill. Barnier’s decision to appoint a cabinet with key right-wing gures like Bruno Retailleau, the new Interior Minister known for his hardline stance on immigration, not only signals a shift towards more right-wing policies but also deepens the divide between his government and the left-dominated legislature. Beyond leftist challenges, Barnier also faces divisions within his conservative party.

4) Internal struggles: conservative party divisions and leadership challenges

While former right-wing French Interior Minister Brice Hortefeux has praised Barnier’s reliability and his international recognition, Pascal Cann, an MEP and former member of Macron’s Renaissance party, has accused Macron of empowering the far-right by appointing Barnier as prime minister. The facts are clear: the right side of the French political spectrum is weakened by internal discord over Barnier. Les Républicains are divided between moderates wanting to cooperate with Macron and hardline conservatives, some aligning with far-right parties like Marine Le Pen’s National Rally.

During the 2024 European elections, Les Républicains’ inuence drastically dropped, with the party securing only 7.4% of the vote. Barnier’s choice of Bruno Retailleau shows a deliberate eort to align with the far-right, syncing with the immigration and national security views of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally. This places Barnier in a precarious position, needing to appease the far-right while also retaining centrist and left-leaning politicians. However, as an architect of European diplomacy, he is well aware of the limitations imposed by European institutions like the European

Court of Human Rights (ECHR), meaning that sweeping changes on immigration are unlikely. In the end, it is his ability to navigate these tensions that will determine whether his government can avoid an impasse or collapse under conicting demands, especially in light of widespread public dissatisfaction.

5) Public discontent and policy challenges

While Barnier’s government faces disapproval among his party, the streets echo with leftist and far-rightist demands and a dissatised public around key policies like pension reform and minimum wage increases. A 2023 Ifop poll showed that 70% of French respondents were unhappy with President Emmanuel Macron’s government, largely driven by the highly unpopular pension reform, which raises the retirement age from 62 to 64. Many feel the government is dismantling the social model, particularly targeting the working class. Adding to the tension, the far-right National Rally has already announced plans to propose repealing the pension reform, a move Barnier is almost certain to oppose.

Beyond the pension reform, Barnier also faces strong opposition from the National Rally and his own party on economic issues, particularly regarding his proposed tax increases aimed at stabilizing France’s economy. Both the far-right RN and members of his conservative party, Les Républicains, traditionally oppose tax hikes, creating further hurdles for Barnier’s legislative agenda.

This raises the question: how will Barnier address working-class distrust while pursuing centrist economic solutions, without alienating the far-right, which favors protectionism, and leftist movements advocating for welfare reforms? Will his previous success as a mediator during Brexit negotiations suce to quell the heated environment of French domestic politics?

6) Prospects: navigating a fragmented legislature

In this turmoiled political environment, what are Barnier’s options to navigate his fragmented legislature? His ability to navigate coalition-building will be crucial as he looks to pass legislation. He may need to reach out to centrist or left-leaning decision-makers for support, a strategy that has historically been lled with challenges in France. As he grapples with the choice between advancing a conservative agenda or making major compromises to keep the government functioning, the question looms: will France enter a new era of political compromise, or will Barnier’s administration collapse under the pressure of divided groups? Ultimately, his success will depend on managing domestic challenges and France’s position on the global stage. Barnier’s future relies on his ability to mediate between factions to keep his party united and earn the trust of the French people. His experiences have brought him to the forefront of French politics, but can his qualities carry him through the storm of public protests, a divided legislature, and a fragmented right? Only time will tell.