Long considered one of Israel’s most consistent allies in Europe, the Netherlands’ decision to back-pedal its traditionally warm relations with Tel Aviv may mark a turning point in EU-Israel relations. With deep historical ties, rooted in shared democratic values and a post-Holocaust solidarity ethos, the Dutch government traditionally maintained a balanced but overall supportive relationship with Israel. Recent developments in the Israel-Gaza conflict marked by an exacerbation of the humanitarian crisis, however, have catalyzed a notable change in the Dutch approach. But how and why has the Netherlands shifted its stance so suddenly, and, more importantly, what are the potential consequences for both Dutch foreign policy and the European Union’s collective position?

Context

The Netherlands officially recognized Israel in 1949 and was one of the first countries to establish diplomatic relations with the newly independent state. Historically, Dutch support for Israel was underpinned by guilt over the Holocaust—where more than 75% of Dutch Jews were killed during World War II—, but also by its professed shared adherence to democratic ideals. Beyond this, the Netherlands has also traditionally served as a hub for pro-Israel lobbying within European institutions—manifested in the Dutch government’s steadfast support for Israel’s right to self-defense and cautious criticism over Israeli actions in the occupied Palestinian territories.

That said, this isn’t the Netherlands’ first time criticizing Israel’s actions in Gaza. In November 2024, the Dutch Supreme Court was advised to uphold a ruling that would cease the export of F-35 fighter jet components to Israel, due to concerns over their use in Gaza. Next month, in December 2024, a Dutch District Court would rule on a case concerning the Netherlands’ military support and trade ties with Israel. The court’s decision highlighted concerns about the legality of arms exports in the context of the Gaza conflict.

Catalysts for change

The current conflict, particularly since Hamas’ attack on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent Israeli military operations in Gaza, has dramatically shifted international opinion. The humanitarian crisis in Gaza, described by UN agencies as “catastrophic”, has led to widespread criticism of Israel’s actions, including allegations of disproportionate use of force and obstruction of humanitarian aid.

In response, the Netherlands has taken several steps that mark a clear departure from past policy. Most notably, in February 2024, the Hague Court of Appeal ordered the Dutch government to stop exporting parts for F-35 fighter jets to Israel, citing a clear risk that these weapons could be used to violate international humanitarian law. This ruling was based on the risk of complicity in war crimes, and the court emphasized the government’s obligation under the Arms Trade Treaty and the Geneva Conventions.

This legal development was followed by growing political pressure within the Dutch parliament. In May 2025, Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp publicly called for the EU to review its Association Agreement with Israel, a treaty that governs trade and political relations, arguing that Israel’s blockade of humanitarian aid to Gaza could constitute a breach of international law. Weeks later, the call was met with a breakthrough: a majority support among EU foreign ministers to open the process of review.

Consensus, however, remains far from secured. While countries like Ireland and Spain support the Netherlands’ stance, others, such as Germany and Austria, have maintained steadfast support for Israel—leading to a lack of consensus otherwise needed to adopt foreign policy decisions at the EU level.

Most notably, Ireland, Spain, and Belgium have taken increasingly critical stances toward Israel. In February 2024, Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez jointly sent a letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, urging an “urgent review” of the EU-Israel Association Agreement. The Netherlands is now more aligned with this emerging EU bloc focused on international law and civilian protection. Back at home, left-leaning parties like GroenLinks, PvdA, D66, and DENK have increasingly prioritized Palestinian human rights in foreign policy debates, challenging the previously dominant centrist narrative.

But with the Dutch political landscape now more fragmented after its last elections, coalition governments have needed to accommodate broader views, including those calling for a more balanced or critical approach to Israel. In paving this politically labyrinthine foreign policy stance, the Dutch government has joined several European countries in supporting investigations by the International Criminal Court into potential war crimes committed by all parties in the conflict.

Stronger pressure on Israel, however, could come by leveraging the EU’s economic weight. A more unified EU stance could potentially increase leverage over Israel and offer a stronger platform for negotiating a long-term peace settlement. That said, it could also provoke backlash from pro-Israel EU members like Hungary and the Czech Republic, potentially deepening divisions within a bloc whose unity seems more crucial now than ever under the current geopolitical climate.

Domestically, the Dutch public remains divided, exemplified by ongoing protests and evolving polling trends. Large-scale protests in support of Palestinian rights have taken place in Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and The Hague. Polling done by the Volkskrant suggests that a growing proportion of Dutch citizens support a more critical stance toward Israel, especially younger voters who are likely more influenced by global human rights discourses than historical loyalties. This public sentiment has made it politically feasible for centrist and even center-right politicians to adopt a tougher line on Israel. A follow-up survey by Ipsos published in April 2025 revealed that public sentiment had grown even more critical. According to the latest study, 54% of respondents advocated for the Dutch cabinet to take a more critical stance toward the Israeli government, up from 47% in the previous poll. Additionally, 27% of those surveyed stated they did not support the Dutch government’s current position “at all,” marking an increase from 19% six months prior.

Implications for the European Union

The Netherlands’ repositioning could have significant consequences for EU foreign policy. By advocating for a review of the EU-Israel Association Agreement, the Dutch government adds weight to calls for a more values-based foreign policy—a call mirrored by a growing portion of Member States.

Such a development could reshape the EU’s diplomatic credibility in the Middle East. On one hand, it could improve the EU’s image among Arab and Muslim-majority nations, where the EU has often been perceived as too close to Israel. The Netherlands, along with the EU, are significant donors in the Middle East, providing humanitarian aid and development assistance, especially to Palestinian refugees and communities affected by conflict. On the other hand, it could strain relations with Israel and with pro-Israel factions within EU member states, potentially complicating consensus-building in Brussels.

The consequences for the Netherland’s foreign policy shift hinges largely on economic and normative considerations. Traditionally known for its liberal values-based approach and strict adherence to international law, ensuring a coherence with respect to Israel and Gaza could help cement this positive reputation for the Netherlands. Doing so would reinforce its role and legitimacy as the host to institutions like the ICC and ICJ. And whilst improving its reputation internationally, it would also stick to the EU values. It would bring the Netherlands closer to the EU’s stated values on human rights and international cooperation. Internally, the government has gained support from human rights advocates and academic institutions, which may bolster public trust in foreign policy decisions.

On the other hand, the Netherlands risks deteriorating its historically warm relationship with Israel, a trend being replicated in many other European countries. Economically, within the EU, the Netherlands stands as one of Israel’s most significant trade partners, with Israeli exports to the Netherlands reaching nearly $2.44 billion USD in 2022. Right wing and pro-Israel parties have criticized the government’s stance as hypocritical and populist, potentially deepening political polarization. This confrontational approach risks damaging the Netherlands’ credibility and inviting accusations for double standards.

All in all, the Israel-Gaza conflict has represented a crux in EU foreign policy, with recent developments and the humanitarian crisis testing long held relations with certain Member States. The Netherlands is no exception, with its evolving position on the Israel-Gaza conflict marking a significant moment in its foreign policy. Prompted by legal, humanitarian, and political factors, the Dutch government has moved away from traditional support for Israel and towards a more critical and values-driven approach. Without a doubt, the transformation is emblematic of broader shifts within the EU and may herald a new phase in how Europe engages with the Israeli-Palestinian relations no matter the outcome of the current conflict.