Since the inauguration of Donald Trump, concerns about the future of NATO and European stability have become increasingly urgent. Meanwhile, Europe faces its most devastating war since World War II, while China’s influence continues to expand, fueling global competition.

As the knot of Russia, China, and the United States tightens around Europe’s neck, most nations seek strength in unity. Yet, Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán appears to undermine this cohesion. Backed by several major world powers, such as the US and Russia, Orbán has accelerated his efforts to dismantle both European Unity, and Hungarian democracy. Has the country lost its connection with the West?

Will Hungary be included in renewed Security Guarantees?

As Russia’s war in Ukraine persists, European leaders fear that the absence of the United States from NATO could encourage further Russian aggression on the continent. In response, they have revived discussions about a common European army.

Given the uncertainties, the EU has shown unprecedented unity in defense. Hungary, however, does not share this sentiment. Viktor Orbán repeatedly condemned increased support for Ukraine, accusing other European states of being “pro-war”.

In early March 2025, an emergency summit was held in Brussels. As the US suspended military aid for Ukraine, European leaders unanimously endorsed increased military aid for the state. Viktor Orbán  voted against the other 26 member states. As the sole dissenting nation, Orbán’s Hungary has reached the peak of its isolation within the EU. 

“We respect Hungary’s position, but it’s one out of 27. And 26 are more than one,” – said Antonio Costa, President of the European Council, after the Brussels emergency summit.

Orbán responded sharply:

“The isolation is relevant to the European Union. The European Union has isolated itself from the US, isolated itself from China because of the trade war, and isolated itself from Russia because of the sanction policy.” 

While the threat of Russia is still present, Trump’s presidency raised doubts about the future of NATO. A leaked memo from the Pentagon suggested the US is unlikely to intervene significantly in the case of further Russian advances in Europe. Consequently, more negotiations among European leaders focus on strengthening the continent’s self-defense. This is further supported by ‘Rearm Europe’, the European Commission’s proposal to increase the presence of defense systems in Europe.

It is increasingly plausible that European nations will form a new military alliance, given that Trump’s participation in the defense of Europe remains questionable. Russia has already responded to the rearmament of Europe. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said:

“All this militarization is happening mainly against Russia. This, of course, could potentially be a topic of deep concern for us,”. He furthermore added that Russia may “take appropriate countermeasures to ensure our security.”

Hungary’s close ties with Russia and exclusion from European defense talks make its participation in a new alliance unlikely. This raises an important question: Where does Orbán seek security guarantees?

Illiberal Democracy, and Hungary’s turn from the West

Viktor Orbán has made it no secret that he wishes to distance himself from western ideas and democratic values. In a 2014 speech, he introduced his concept of illiberal democracy. Since then, state-controlled media, propaganda, oligarchs and corruption have become the cornerstones of the Orbán regime. 

Amid widespread corruption, the EU demanded judicial reforms to prevent the embezzlement of European Union funds and rule of law breaches. The PM’s refusal to comply resulted in the state losing access to €1 billion in EU funding. Given the current state of the Hungarian economy, the Prime Minister has looked for other sources of revenue, such as Chinese loans. This raises several questions, given that the conditions of these loans are not revealed to the public. 

Hungary’s close ties with China stem from the fact that their loans come without major strings attached. While there are no democratic or transparency requirements, the loans potentially harm the nation’s sovereignty.  EU funding is conditional and has requirements regarding transparency and rule of law compliance. 

China imposes no such conditions. As a result, the details of the deals between the two countries can remain secretive.  Although the Hungarian Prime Minister was a close ally of President Trump before the elections, the relationship has become somewhat one-sided. The United States has voiced concerns regarding the growing Chinese influence. The corruption related to China was among the reasons named the new US tariffs. 

On April 3, 2025, Orbán’s chief of staff, Gergely Gulyás announced their withdrawal from the International Criminal Court. The announcement happened on the same day when Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu arrived in Budapest. The ICC had previously issued a warrant for Netanyahu. Hungary, still a member, was obliged to arrest the Israeli PM, however Viktor Orbán has made it clear he had no such intentions. 

On the path towards the Kremlin

Orbán has long been accused of following the steps of the Russian president. Control over media and state institutions were all key elements in Putin’s consolidation of power. By 2025, the situation has worsened significantly. 

In March 2025, Hungary’s  parliament passed a law banning Budapest Pride. Illegal attendees can face fines of up to €500. While this new approach heavily restricts the rights of LGBTQ people, it is not exclusively aimed at them. 

Beyond restricting LGBTQ gatherings, the law grants the government broad powers to ban other protests. Under the law, demonstrations must be registered one month in advance and can be banned under the pretext of child protection. Furthermore, the government will implement the use of facial recognition software and CCTV to identify and fine citizens in case of unauthorized demonstrations. 

The surveillance of citizens in Hungary is not unprecedented. The state has purchased and used the spyware named Pegasus against its citizens. The software was developed to fight suspected terrorism and organized crime. In 2021, an investigation has found that Hungary however, used it against journalists, businessmen and politicians. 

The Hungarian Prime Minister’s recent March 15^th speech in Budapest also alarmed many, as Orbán referred to an easter “purge”, declaring that the government would get rid of “politicians bought by corrupt dollars, judges, journalists, pseudo-NGOs and political activists.”

“Oil comes from East, but the freedom comes from West”

In 2007, during a conference, Viktor Orbán declared, “Oil comes from East, but the freedom comes from West.” At the time, he emphasized Hungary’s commitment to Western values and warned future generations against allowing Hungarian democracy to become a one-party system. In 2025, these words are almost unrecognizable as Orbán’s own. Early in his career, he was an advocate for liberal democracies, human rights, and undeniably pro-Europe. What led to his turn towards illiberal ideas?

Between 2010 and 2011, the country pivoted economically towards the East. The Prime Minister often justified this as diversification, yet the most significant deals were exclusively linked to Russia and China. This shift marked a turning point: The EU was no longer seen as an ally, but as an opponent to be challenged. Later, the Hungarian government launched nationwide anti-EU propaganda campaigns, appearing on billboards, the internet, in newspapers and television. 

The drift to Russia is clear, as Hungarian Foreign Minister, Péter Szijjártó recently returned from his 13^th visit to Moscow, since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Speaking from Red Square, he announced expanded cooperation with Russia, a symbolic act of Orbán’s government. 

Brussels or Moscow?

As we previously reported, Viktor Orbán is currently trailing in second place in the latest polls, narrowly behind his contender, Péter Magyar. The outcome of the 2026 elections will be critical for Hungary’s future. While many see the elections as a choice between Moscow and Brussels, the reality is more nuanced.

Though Orbán’s pro-Russian stance is evident, some argue that his controversial policies, such as revoking the citizenship of dual citizens, and banning LGBTQ events, serve as distractions from Hungary’s economic decline. 

Many have called the Hungarian Prime Minister a Trojan horse for Russia, yet Hungary’s exit from the EU remains unlikely. Dutch Member of the European Parliament, Tineke Strik, shares this sentiment. She and her team are tasked with monitoring the situation in Hungary regarding the rule of law, democracy and fundamental rights. She has raised her concerns several times before to European Parliament. 

Although the concerns raised the Dutch MEP were acknowledged, pro-Orbán media has responded strongly, labeling her “anti-Hungarian”, describing their reports as the “globalist pressure”. The Hungarian government does not accept any form of criticism coming from the EU. In a similar case, a widespread propaganda campaign was launched against Judith Sargentini, another Dutch politician, who authored the so-called ‘Sargentini-report’. She raised comparable concerns,  which were quickly dismissed by the Hungarian Prime Minister as an attack by Brussels on Hungary. 

Orbán’s influence within the EU stems from his power to veto decisions, allowing him to disrupt European decision-making. If Hungary were to leave the European Union, it would give up both financial aid and geopolitical significance, making Orbán far less valuable to his eastern allies. 

Hungary remains heavily reliant on foreign trade and export. It is therefore improbable that the Hungarian Prime Minister would push the country toward full isolation from the West. The Hungarian economy is deeply intertwined with the German automotive industry, further complicating a potential break from the EU.

While Hungary appears to be drifting towards the Kremlin, a complete shift remains improbable as long as the country stays a member of the EU. However, with Orbán’s loss of popularity and the 2026 elections, Hungary stands at a crossroads: Will the nation follow a path toward Moscow, or will it realign itself with Brussels?