France’s ties to Lebanon date back to the Middle Ages and peaked under the French Mandate after World War I. The lasting bond was rooted in cultural and political alliances, particularly with Lebanon’s Christian communities. However, France’s role has diminished from decisive actor to passive bystander. Despite decades of diplomatic efforts, its influence has been overshadowed by other powers like the United States and Iran. Why has this shift occurred? Is it internal French politics, regional realignments, or Lebanon’s evolving landscape? These questions remain as Lebanon’s crises continue, raising uncertainty about France’s future role in the Cedar Republic.

Why does Lebanon matter to France?

Beyond historical ties, Lebanon has served as a strategic foothold for France in the Middle East, positioned between Syria and Israel. France’s engagement was once crucial for preserving its diplomatic relevance and soft power. However, its fading influence has raised concerns over Iran’s growing dominance. Critics argue that Iran, through Hezbollah—a Shiite militant group and political party—has reshaped Lebanon’s ideological alignment, promoting pro-Iran policies within the Lebanese government while further sidelining France.

Recent interviews¹ with Lebanese students in France highlight how the diminishing French presence aligns with broader cultural and religious transformations in Lebanon. These shifts, driven by demographic changes and geopolitical realignments, deepen polarization as regional powers assert sectarian and ideological interests.

France’s Golden Years in Lebanon: From Independence to Strategic Peaks

French influence in Lebanon has historically shaped governance, education, and diplomacy. The Crusades marked the beginning of a formal alliance with the Maronites, further reinforced in the 19th century when France intervened in sectarian conflicts to protect Christian communities, particularly during the 1860 civil war between Maronites and Druzes. The French Mandate (1920-1943) defined Lebanon’s borders, introduced constitutional governance, and established French cultural dominance. Even post-independence, Beirut remained a Francophone hub, earning the title “Paris of the Middle East.” However, France’s influence declined as American power rose post-World War II. The 1956 Suez Crisis accelerated this decline, signaling the end of European colonial dominance in the region.

The Decline of French in Lebanon: Diaspora and the Erosion of Influence

As France’s role in Lebanon diminishes, so does its cultural legacy. Lebanon’s Christian population—historically the primary guardians of Francophone culture—has shrunk significantly, from around 50% in 1932 to just 22% today. Emigration, sectarian shifts, and rising Anglophone influence have loosened the country’s historic ties to France.

While French remains prestigious among Lebanon’s intellectual elite, it is fading in regions dominated by Hezbollag and other sectarian groups. The increasing dominance of English signals a broader cultural transformation, reducing Lebanon’s historical Francophone identity.

The role of France in the Lebanese crises: support or interference?

France’s influence in Lebanon now largely survives through its ties to Christian communities. However, its role is increasingly scrutinized amid rising geopolitical competition. Tensions have escalated, as seen when Lebanese authorities blocked a French general from bringing sensitive military equipment into the country.

At the European level, divisions within the EU have further weakened collective influence. Unlike the U.S., which maintains a structured regional policy, or Iran, which operates through Hezbollah, Europe’s involvement remains fragmented, reducing France’s leverage.

Despite these challenges, France continues to position itself as a key diplomatic partner. President Emmanuel Macron’s intervention in the 2017 Saad Hariri crisis reaffirmed France’s role in Lebanese affairs. Yet, critics argue that its reform efforts resemble political oversight rather than true partnership, fueling skepticism about its true intentions. While many still see France as a partner due to historical and cultural ties, others perceive its actions as a form of neo-colonialism, pressuring Lebanon into compliance rather than allowing it to determine its own future. Whether Paris can sustain its influence without being viewed as interfering will ultimately shape the future of its relationship with Beirut.

Lebanon’s Crisis After the 2020 Beirut Port Explosion: France’s Role and Challenges

Since the Beirut port explosion, France has attempted to reassert influence in Lebanon. Macron’s immediate visit and €250 million aid package underscored France’s commitment. Public frustration was evident in a petition signed by 50,000 people requesting France to recolonize Lebanon—a striking symbol of public disillusionment. While he pressured Lebanon’s leaders to enact economic and political changes, internal division rendered these efforts ineffective. The continued deterioration of living conditions, with 45% of the population below the poverty line by 2020, only worsened after the 2024 Israel-Hezbollah conflict, further exposing Lebanon’s fragility and reinforcing its image as a state unable to rebuild itself (“le fantôme d’un Liban incapable de se renouveler”).

Since then, France has persisted in its political and economic engagement, but with little success. As former Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and other French official continued to press Lebanese politicians, a TV5Monde correspondent noted in 2021: “France is one of the most active countries on the Lebanese file, yet things are not moving forward.”

Despite diplomatic efforts, France’s influence in Lebanon remains constrained. As instability deepens, many Lebanese have chosen to emigrate, seeking change from abroad rather than remain trapped in turmoil.

Lebanon’s Post-2023 Political Shift: A Crisis or a New Opportunity for France?

France’s role in Lebanon has become increasingly complicated, particularly among factions aligned with Hezbollah and Iran, who view its involvement as an extension of Western influence. This perception is exacerbated by France’s inconsistent stance—on one hand, positioning itself as a supporter of reforms, while on the other, reportedly backing Hezbollah-affiliated candidate Sleiman Frangieh in the 2023 presidential elections. By June 14, after twelve rounds of voting, Lebanon remained without a president, and France’s alignment with Frangieh—despite official denials—drew sharp criticism. Many saw this as contradicting Macron’s pledges for reform, with critics warning that such support undermined efforts for political change and damaged France’s credibility. As Geagea ironically remarked, if France backs a specific candidate, they might as well run him for the French presidency.

Macron’s diplomatic efforts in Lebanon have been further hindered by mounting political challenges at home, where his leadership is increasingly scrutinized by the left and right. As one Unherd article noted, “His chances of success this time are barely better than they were four years ago.” The failure of France’s engagement has deepened Lebanese skepticism, particularly following former Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian visit. Stéphanie Baz, author of Le Liban, debout malgré tout, observed widespread frustration, with many Lebanese dismissing his presence as futile, given their government’s deep corruption. This growing disillusionment reflects a broader sentiment: despite France’s historical ties and diplomatic efforts, its influence in Lebanon is proving increasingly ineffective.

Lebanon as a Battleground for Global Ambitions

Since the 2020 explosion, Lebanon has become a stage for competing global powers, each pursuing its strategic interests. Iran, through Hezbollah, has solidified its grip on Lebanese politics, further marginalizing France. Even during the 2024 ceasefire negotiations, Israel actively sought to limit France’s role, favoring U.S. leadership instead.

Meanwhile, Turkey has expanded its presence, particularly in Tripoli, by investing in reconstruction projects, while the Gulf states have shifted from direct political intervention to economic leverage. Despite diplomatic efforts from the UN, the U.S., and the EU, critics argue that foreign actors prioritize their geopolitical agendas over Lebanon’s stability, using local allies to advance their interests while hindering genuine reform. The country is now divided between two opposing blocs: the Gulf-Israel alliance, advocating regional cooperation and modernization, and the pro-Iranian faction, led by Hezbollah. In an effort to curb Iran’s influence, the U.S. has invested in the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), though the military has faced accusations of tacit cooperation with Hezbollah.

The 2024 death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has added uncertainty to Lebanon’s political landscape, potentially reshaping the group’s influence. At the same time, the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has disrupted Hezbollah’s logistical networks and exposed it to internal criticism, further complicating its regional role.

From Decline to Renewal: What’s Next for France-Lebanon Relations Under New Leadership?

France’s influence in Lebanon has undeniably faded since 2020. This shift is evident not only geopolitically but also within Lebanon’s borders. Once a regional force, France now plays a secondary role as the U.S. and Iran dictate key moments—most notably during the Gaza-Israel war, where France’s role was barely acknowledged. Former French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin lamented this decline, calling it a “historical scandal” because it signals a fundamental failure of France to uphold its long-standing diplomatic role and commitments in the region. While nostalgia for “France the protector” persists, Paris’ practical leverage is limited. As Middle East analyst Anne Gadel put it, “Lebanon’s political situation is not decided in Paris—it is decided in Riyadh, Tehran, or Washington.”

Nonetheless, the election of Joseph Aoun as Lebanon’s president in January 2025, after three years of political blockage, has sparked cautious optimism. The former military general, backed by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, now faces the challenge of navigating Lebanon’s sectarian balance, particularly within Hezbollah’s stronghold. Many Western diplomats and Lebanese political analysts see Aoun as a stabilizing force due to his military background and ability to negotiate across political divides. His ties to the West, especially Paris and Washington, could present an opportunity to challenge Hezbollah’s influence. However, France’s historical reliance on Maronite christian alliances raises doubts about how a less sectarian governance model would enhance its role. Still, a recent meeting between Aoun and Macron, where the French president affirmed, “France will remain by your side,” indicates ongoing engagement.

Conclusion: Can France Redefine Its Role in Lebanon?

Rather than seeking to reclaim dominance, France may focus on maintaining a strategic presence by supporting economic recovery, civil society initiatives, and diplomatic mediation—without overstepping. Alternatively, its role could evolve into a long-term cultural and developmental partnership, acknowledging that Lebanon’s political trajectory is now shaped elsewhere. While France’s direct influence has shrunk, its ability to remain a trusted partner will depend on how well it adapts to Lebanon’s changing realities.

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¹Master’s Thesis “Crossing Borders, Shaping Identity: Navigating Crisis and Belonging Among Lebanese Students in France and Germany” (2025) – Thérésa Elhage