How We Got Here:

The Galactic Empire in Star Wars, House Harkonnen in Dune, and House Lannister in Game of Thrones. What do all of these hegemonic powers have in common? The fear of being dethroned and replaced by an emerging contender. Tudor A. Onea describes this feeling as “Hegemony Anxiety”, and it can also be used to explain shifts in actions by falling hegemonic powers in the wake of new global actors coming into the international stage. Onea goes on to explain the more pronounced is this anxiety across status dimensions the higher the likelihood of conflict. The United States may not have an Emperor Palpatine, but many political scientists consider the U.S. the leading global hegemon—at least until the recent rise of another rival, China.

Although the U.S. remains a global leader in many metrics, China has emerged as a competitor, rivaling the U.S. in both economic and military strength. China has threatened U.S. global alliances, not only in Asia but also in Central and South America. Through BRICS and more conventional organizations like the United Nations, China has expanded its international influence. Statistically, China’s GDP has grown to $17.963 trillion, closely following the U.S. at $25 trillion, and far surpassing third-place Japan at $4.231 trillion. While the U.S. still outstrips China in military capabilities, China has shown a willingness to rapidly expand its forces, particularly in ground operations and its expansion into the South China Sea. It has aggressively projected military strength across Asia, becoming a serious threat to neighbors like Taiwan and the Philippines who it routinely threatens with military force. 

In 2016, Donald Trump ran on a platform of “Make America Great Again,” aiming to restore U.S. global hegemony. During his first term in 2020, Trump proposed harsh measures against China, accusing Beijing of “raiding our factories, offshoring our jobs, stealing intellectual property, and violating WTO commitments.” He warned Americans of the threat posed by China, proposing tariffs and surrounding himself with critics of the regime. Tensions continued to rise. In 2023, a record 58% of Americans polled by the Chicago Council on Foreign Affairs considered China’s rise a critical threat to U.S. interests, the highest level recorded in surveys dating back to 1990. A third of respondents viewed the U.S. and China as roughly equal in economic power. 

How Europe is affected

The ongoing U.S.-China trade war has led to escalating tariffs, directly affecting EU imports and exports. Trump has threatened not only more tariffs on China but has also targeted the EU. In a post on X, Trump stated, “I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large-scale purchase of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!!”

Increased tariffs could potentially devastate an already stumbling EU economy. In 2022, the total trade between the two regions was estimated to be $1.3 trillion. A recent report from Citi Group estimated a broad 10% tariff, for example, would reduce EU GDP by around 0.3 percentage point over two years. Such a tariff would likely shave some 1% to 2% from European earnings per share. Many European leaders are continually being sent mixed signals from the incoming Trump cabinet, causing the 27 EU member states to lack a  “concerted and agreed plan of attack”, regarding Trump’s tariff plans.

Likewise, some senior EU officials are reluctant to completely sever ties with Beijing. “We don’t want to be dragged into the foreign policy toward China that the new American administration will be engaged in,” said one senior European official. “America is our friend and ally. But we have our own foreign policy and our own economic position toward China.” Despite China’s financial support of Russia, including the export of over $300 million worth of dual-use items to Russia each month, the EU’s total trade with China reached €739 billion in 2023, making China its second-largest trading partner for goods, after the U.S. losing such a significant partner would be a severe blow to the EU’s stagnating economy, which has grown by only 0.1% per quarter over the past two years. Many EU officials are attempting to find a middle ground, hoping to avoid being forced into siding with either superpower.

The EU, with strong economic ties to both powers, finds itself caught between the U.S. and China in a geopolitical tug-of-war. Under the upcoming Trump presidency, the U.S. will likely continue to pressure the EU to align with its policies, forcing European nations to choose between Washington and Beijing. European leaders may feel compelled to support Trump’s hardline stance on China to avoid breaking long-standing economic and political agreements with the U.S. The EU must balance its economic interests between the two superpowers, navigating the risks of being squeezed by the conflict.

The Rise of Right-Wing Populist Movements

The surge in right-wing populist movements within the EU has made a unified response to the growing tension between the U.S. and China more difficult. As of 2024, far-right parties are in power in several EU member states, including Croatia, Finland, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, and Slovakia. Many of these parties have called for less dependency on the United States, advocating for EU and NATO reform or even withdrawal. For instance, the Party for Freedom (PVV) has called for a Dutch “Nexit,” while Bulgaria’s right-wing Revival party has pushed for the country to leave the EU and join BRICS. Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD), gaining support from figures like Trump allies like Elon Musk, who recently interviewed AfD leader Alice Weidel on X, has increasingly advocated for restructuring the EU or even leaving it altogether. This growing trend, if it continues, could fracture the EU, leaving European nations more vulnerable to external pressures, including Russian aggression. Smaller economies and militaries would be especially exposed, lacking the unified strength of a stable European bloc or the security guarantees of NATO.

Where does Europe go from here?

The United States’ hegemonic anxiety, driven by the rise of China as a global power, poses significant challenges for the European Union. The EU, as a major economic player, finds itself in a precarious position, torn between the U.S. and China. The ongoing U.S.-China trade war, combined with the U.S.’s potential shift in foreign policy under a more confrontational administration, threatens to disrupt EU trade relations, defense commitments, and diplomatic autonomy. The EU’s growing economic ties with China further complicate its situation, as severing these links could damage its already fragile economy. Moreover, the rise of right-wing populism within the EU adds to the uncertainty, with some factions advocating for a reduced dependence on the U.S., challenging European unity in responding to this crisis.

 In navigating this complex geopolitical landscape, the EU must carefully balance its economic interests with its strategic alliances. The future of the EU may hinge on its ability to maintain a united front, protect its economic interests, and manage its relationships with both superpowers. If Europe cannot find a way to strengthen its internal cohesion and forge a coherent response to global shifts, it risks becoming a pawn in the broader U.S.-China rivalry, undermining its influence on the world stage. As such, the EU must work towards greater autonomy, security, and strategic alignment to ensure its survival and prosperity in an increasingly polarized global order.