On October 26, 2024, Georgia will hold its parliamentary elections—a pivotal event with significant implications not only for the country but for the broader Caucasus region and the European Union (EU). These elections, the 10th since Georgia gained independence from the Soviet Union, will be the first conducted entirely under a proportional representation system, determining the composition of the 150-member of national parliament. 

The political climate leading up to this election is tense. At the outset this electoral appointment marks the end of a particularly tumultuous legislative period that began with the contested victory of the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party in 2020. The past four years have seen heightened regional tensions, such as the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as international crises, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Domestically, public dissatisfaction has surged, with protests erupting in Tbilisi against the ruling party’s increasingly pro-Russian stance, most notably sparked by the controversial “foreign agents” law. At the heart of this social unrest lies the perception that the Georgian government has stalled the country’s integration with the EU, opting instead to align more closely with Russia. This shift deeply concerns the Georgian public, 86% of whom express pro-Western sentiments and view Russia as an adversary due to its involvement in the conflicts over Abkhazia and South Ossetia. 

Unlike previous elections, which featured a fragmented political landscape, the 2024 election appears more polarized. The GD party, seeking a fourth term, remains the frontrunner with around 32% support in recent polls, despite facing widespread criticism. Founded by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, the party has shifted from the moderate, reform-oriented stance of its early years to a more authoritarian, centralized approach, leaning heavily towards Russian influence. This pro-Russian tilt is evident in the party’s legislative agenda, including the passage of laws that mimic Russian policies on civil rights and foreign NGOs operating in Georgia. 

In response to these developments, a fragmented opposition is attempting to unite around a common goal: resisting the GD’s pro-Russian re-orientation of Georgia. The main opposition party, the United National Movement (UNM), has undergone significant leadership changes, with Tina Bokuchava now at the helm. Meanwhile, former leader Nika Melia has left the UNM to form his own party, which will run under a broader opposition coalition called “For Change.” Despite their differences, opposition parties are rallying around a shared commitment to European integration. They have collectively endorsed the “Georgian Charter” a document that envisions the establishment of a technical commission which, together with the government, is dedicated to fulfilling the requirements for restarting EU accession talks, with a focus on reversing anti-European legislation. 

The outcome of this election will have far-reaching consequences beyond Georgia’s borders, influencing the regional balance of power and Brussels’ foreign policy. The EU has grown increasingly concerned about Georgia’s democratic backsliding under the GD’s leadership, particularly its anti-Western rhetoric and reluctance to adopt EU recommendations, which strained relations between Tbilisi and Brussels. As a result, the EU has frozen direct funding to the Georgian government, and there are growing fears that visa-free travel for Georgian

citizens could be revoked. A controversial or undemocratic victory for the GD could further strain relations with Brussels, pushing Georgia closer to Russia and potentially jeopardizing its NATO aspirations. Such a shift would not only destabilize the region but also undermine the EU’s influence in the Eastern Partnership, a key policy framework for engaging with post-Soviet states. Of particular concern is the potential impact on Georgia’s breakaway regions, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which Russia has long sought to annex. A GD victory could accelerate Georgia’s “Russification,” both ideologically and, possibly, militarily. This scenario would likely force the EU to reconsider its stance towards Georgia, possibly increasing sanctions or further freezing membership talks. Additionally, Georgia’s drift toward Moscow could embolden Russia’s influence in other former Soviet republics, including Moldova and Ukraine. This possible outcome would constitute an additional failure for Europe, calling Brussels’ ability to promote democracy and development policies in the neighboring regions into question and possibly also slowing down the membership processes of Moldova and Ukraine. 

On the other hand, a victory for the opposition, which is united in its pro-European and pro-NATO stance, would mark a significant turning point and would signal a renewed commitment to EU integration. The opposition’s endorsement of the “Georgian Charter” reflects their alignment with public sentiment, which overwhelmingly favors closer ties with Brussels. For President Salomé Zurabishvili and the opposition parties, this election represents a referendum on Georgia’s future—whether it will continue on the path of Europeanization or drift further into authoritarianism under Russian influence. A successful opposition campaign would not only revive Georgia’s hopes for EU accession but also demonstrate the EU’s ability to support democratic transitions in its neighboring regions. 

Ultimately, the October 26 parliamentary elections are a critical juncture for both Georgia’s future, the European Union, and the geopolitical landscape in the Caucasus. The outcome will determine whether Georgia continues its slide toward authoritarianism and Russian influence, or whether it can reaffirm its commitment to democratic values and European integration. In a country deeply divided between an overwhelmingly pro-European civil society and a ruling elite that is increasingly aligned with Moscow, this election will have profound national, regional, and global consequences. Whatever the result, it will mark a turning point in Georgia’s political trajectory and its role in the broader geopolitical landscape of the Caucasus.