The Rise of Populism: Analyzing the MAGA Movement and AfD’s populist rhetoric impact on globalization. 

The rise of far-right movements in the United States and Germany, symbolized by the “Make America Great Again” movement and the Alternative for Germany, has reshaped the political landscape of both countries. Understanding how both the AfD and MAGA were able to gain millions of followers and enjoy historic success in their respective nations requires a look back at the social, economic, and political factors that fueled the rise of these populist movements. 

In the U.S, the MAGA movement emerged as a reaction to years of economic stagnation, cultural changes, and political disillusionment. The 2008 financial crisis crippled many Americans, creating a sense of economic insecurity and frustration with the political establishment. This frustration was amplified by the growing perception that mainstream politicians were out of touch with the needs of ordinary Americans. 

Donald Trump, a billionaire businessman without political experience, exploited this discontent. His message of trade protectionism and economic liberalism, anti-immigration policies, and a promise to put “America First” resonated with millions of Americans who felt left behind by the increasing globalization. Trump’s rhetoric, often laced with attacks on the media, political elites, and minority groups, tapped into the anger and fear that many Americans were feeling. Many political and media elites laughed at the possibility of a Trump presidency in 2016, but despite losing the popular vote against former vice president Hillary Clinton, he secured his victory in the electoral college and became the 45th president of the United States. 

Similarly, in Germany, the AfD was born out of disillusionment. Established in 2013, the AfD originally focused on opposing the European Union and Germany’s role in bailing out other financially troubled EU member states. However, the party’s platform quickly shifted towards a more radical stance, particularly during the 2015 refugee crisis when Germany accepted over a million asylum seekers, primarily from Syria and other war-torn countries. 

This influx of refugees sparked a fierce backlash among segments of the German population who feared that the country’s culture, economy, and social fabric were under threat. The AfD capitalized on these fears, framing itself as the only party willing to stand up against what they called the “Islamization” of Germany and the alleged failure of mainstream politicians to protect German interests. 

In the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) popularity has swelled in recent years. The AfD have won substantial victories with 32.8% of the vote in Thuringia and finishing a close second in Saxony in 2024. Most recently in late September 2024, Germany’s Social Democrats finished just ahead of the far-right Alternative for Germany party in the Brandenburg state election. 

Both MAGA and the AfD tapped into deep-seated anxieties about national identity, economic security, and perceived loss of traditional values. They framed themselves as movements of the people against a corrupt and complacent elite, promising to restore their respective nations to past greatness that they claimed had been lost. 

Nationalism Over Alliances: The Shared Rhetoric of MAGA and AfD on NATO and the EU. 

Both MAGA and the AfD have employed nationalist rhetoric that emphasizes skepticism of multinational organizations like the EU and NATO. MAGA rhetoric has emphasized the ideas of sovereignty over multilateralism. Trump often portrays NATO and the EU as institutions that infringe upon American interests. Throughout his presidency from 2017-2021, Trump often criticized NATO as a disproportionate burden on U.S. taxpayers and threatened to not support NATO nations who had been attacked if they had not met NATO’s 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) target. Trump has continued to double down on this stance even though there has never been a binding obligation to meet the 2% goal or any enforcing mechanism to hold allies accountable. A future Trump presidency will likely continue the financial pressure on NATO nations. Most recently in February 2024, Trump continued his criticism implying America would not defend NATO members that don’t meet defense spending targets first. “Look, if they’re not going to pay, we’re not going to protect. OK?”

Additionally, Trump’s “America First” slogan propels the belief that U.S. foreign policy should prioritize American citizens over international obligations. This rhetoric has been echoed by other MAGA leaders who argue against extensive military commitments abroad. Other “America First” leaders like Representative Matt Gaetz have been very vocal about his disapproval of the current structure of NATO, going as far as stating in a 2023 interview: “Why would you pick Ukraine? Why not extend NATO to Russia and make it an anti-China alliance?”

Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland has consistently positioned itself as a party critical of the European Union and NATO, calling for a reassessment of Germany’s commitments to these international organizations. At the core of the AfD’s rhetoric is the belief that Germany’s sovereignty is being compromised by its membership in the EU and NATO, both of which the party views as infringing upon national decision-making and economic independence. 

AfD leaders frequently criticize the EU’s regulatory power and its influence over German domestic policies. Alice Weidel, one of the party’s co-leaders, has openly condemned the EU’s bureaucratic nature, stating, “The EU has transformed from a community of sovereign nations into a technocratic superstate that undermines democracy.” In 2023, she described the EU as a “failed project” advocating for reclaiming national control, particularly over economic policies, calling for a revision or even an exit from the EU to restore German decision-making authority. 

On NATO, Germany ranks among the top contributors but significantly trails the U.S. in terms of military spending. “Nonetheless, AfD leaders, including the controversial Björn Höcke, have criticized Germany’s military obligations to NATO calling for ‘European states to finally take responsibility for their own security in their own hands’. AfD leaders have also been vocal in their criticism of Germany’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Co-leader Tino Chrupalla has echoed this sentiment, promoting diplomacy in Ukraine, no arms deliveries to crisis areas, and solutions. The party’s proposed policies include reducing Germany’s defense spending and reconsidering the necessity of its NATO membership. These stances reflect the AfD’s broader skepticism toward multilateral institutions, advocating instead for a more isolationist approach that prioritizes national sovereignty over global cooperation, reminiscent of Trump’s “America First” policies. 

Support from the Base 

Social media platforms such as Twitter, TikTok and Facebook have seen a proliferation of posts from MAGA supporters arguing against U.S. financial commitments to NATO and AfD voters questioning the benefits of EU membership. Discussions often revolve around prioritizing domestic concerns over international obligations. Surveys indicate that a significant proportion of Republican voters align with the MAGA perspective, with many expressing skepticism toward NATO’s role and questioning the effectiveness of the EU. A Pew Research Center survey found that only about 40% of Republicans believe the U.S. should uphold NATO commitments. Regarding the war in Ukraine, another Pew Research poll showed fewer Republicans say that Russia is a major threat to the U.S., with that number dropping from 51 percent to 26 percent between March 2022 and June 2023. This drop aligns with MAGA skepticism about international alliances, with many feeling that NATO’s obligations may not serve U.S. interests. 

Similarly, AfD supporters express strong agreement with the party’s anti-EU and anti-NATO rhetoric in online forums, advocating for a return to national sovereignty and reduced military spending. Pew Research polling shows that AfD voters largely oppose EU integration and military commitments through NATO, with a majority favoring a more nationalist approach to foreign policy. Comparatively, during the Trump administration, AfD supporters had more favorable views of the U.S. than Germans who did not support the party. According to Pew Research polling in 2019, 54% of Germans with a favorable view of AfD also had a favorable view of the U.S, compared with 36% of those who have an unfavorable view of the party. Additionally, AfD supporters in Germany are much more likely than non-supporters to express confidence in him (39% vs. 9%). 

AfD supporters’ views on the EU mirror the rhetoric of their leaders. Only 30% of AfD supporters have a positive view of the EU, compared with 72% of those who do not support the party. Among AfD supporters, their overall support of the EU has dropped significantly over time. After reaching a high of 53% favorable in 2022, this support has fallen by 23 points since then, including a 16-point drop in the last year. Lastly, AfD supporters also have significantly less favorable views than non-supporters when it comes to NATO at just 39%. 

Implications for NATO, Ukraine and the EU 

If boosted by another Trump presidency MAGA policies continue to expand or AfD policies are implemented on a wider scale within Germany with continued AfD wins, the consequences for NATO’s support for Ukraine could be significant. Reduced military assistance and a shift towards decreased U.S. and German military assistance would undermine NATO’s collective capability to support Ukraine. Ukraine’s military capabilities are heavily reliant on consistent support from NATO allies. A reduction in aid from the U.S. and Germany could jeopardize Ukraine’s ability to maintain its defenses and operational capabilities. 

The withdrawal of these key contributors could hinder Ukraine’s defenses against Russian aggression. In 2024, MAGA Republicans held up Ukrainian military aid, openly criticizing sending more funding to the Ukrainians. Trump and MAGA supporters have openly praised Putin as a champion for traditional cultural values and agree with his anti-globalist stances. A reduction in commitment from major NATO members may create a fragmented response, complicating coordination among member states. Ukrainian President Zelensky has been very vocal about what the lack of U.S funding means for Ukraine saying, “We need to tell Congress specifically … If Congress does not help Ukraine, Ukraine will lose the war.” This fragmentation could embolden continued Russian offenses in Ukraine and lead to a reassessment of military strategies by Eastern European NATO members. 

Continued AfD success in Germany and the continued influence of “America First” republicans can have significant implications for the European Union in the future. This shift challenges the EU’s cohesion and its ability to respond effectively to transnational issues such as climate change, security, and economic inequality. 

AfD’s anti-EU stance can exacerbate existing tensions among member states, particularly in areas like migration and fiscal policy, a point of disagreement. If the AfD were to gain more influence, it could lead to a fragmentation of the EU’s policy-making process, undermining initiatives aimed at collective problem-solving. The potential for increased Euroscepticism might also encourage other member states to reassess their commitments to EU structures, like the U.K, potentially leading to a weakening of the Union. 

Looking back to Trump and his MAGA supporters “America First” approach, he has similarly encouraged a transactional view of international relations. Trump’s willingness to engage in unilateral actions could embolden EU member states to pursue their own national interests, further straining EU unity. The EU’s response to challenges such as trade, security, and climate policy may become increasingly fragmented as member states feel pressured to align with either U.S. policies or their own national agendas. 

In the long term, the interplay between AfD’s influence and Trump’s MAGA agenda could reshape the EU’s future, pushing it towards a more decentralized structure where member states prioritize bilateral relations over collective EU action. This could hinder the EU’s ability to present a united front on global issues, ultimately affecting its geopolitical influence and economic stability. The challenge for the EU will be to navigate these pressures while reinforcing its commitment to unity and collaboration, ensuring it remains a key player on the world stage.